Good Morning,
It’s an incredible drama with an unbelievable ending, and as a long time journalist I don’t buy 100% of it, and neither should you.
What we know is this -
Saturday morning a Yevgeny Prigozhin rolled his mercenary forces out of Ukraine and into southern Russia seizing the military headquarters in Rostov-On-Don with barely a shot fired.
He announced his troops had been attacked by the Russian Ministry of Defence. That this was on a march of justice, and he would push on towards Moscow.
And we saw scenes of some trucks and tanks moving hundreds of miles towards Moscow, and President Putin making a bizarre address to the nation describing Prigozhin’s mutiny as treason and “a betrayal,” that struck at the very heart of Russian statehood. And pledging “all those who went on this path of treason will be punished and held accountable”.
The drama of a nuclear nation facing a civil war was broadcast by the minute by TV networks around the globe, and Russian TV also reported on the security lockdown in Moscow, as the Mayor of that City cancelled Monday’s work day and advised people to stay at home.
Suddenly it all ended with news from Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov a deal was brokered by the Belarusian leader, Aleksandr Lukashenko, that Prigozhin, would be permitted to “retire” to Belarus, in exchange for stopping his insurrection.
Peskov explained that the deal, “was for the sake of a higher goal—to avoid bloodshed, to avoid internal confrontation, to avoid clashes with unpredictable results.”
Ok - We have to believe Prigozhin wanted out of Ukraine, as he has described a disaster on the front lines where he says in a video;
-1000 Russians are dying daily
-battle lines are buckling and Ukraine is making advances
-the feb 24 launch of a ‘special military operation’ was launched by a bunch of scumbags to have a blast and get pr on how strong the Russian army was
-Defence Min Shoigu was out to become a historic figure and wanted a hero star but the war was not needed to return Russians “to our bosom” or to denatzify Ukraine and there was no threat from an attack from NATO or Ukraine
-on the ground right now the Russian army is retreating on the Zaporizhia Kherson axis and that “we’re wallowing in blood” “no one is giving us any resources”
-there’s no control. There is hysteria in which the head of the general staff after a glass of vodka is squeeling to take back positions
If that’s not the most damning, round up of Putin’s premise for this attack on Ukraine and prosecution of a losing war, I don’t know what is.
The attempted coup shows Putin’s regime is weaker and more wobbly than anyone has calculated and may be in its final stage.
A mercenary with only 25 thousand soldiers rattled the Kremlin enough to cut a deal and let Prigozhin go free? Did Prigozhin have support in the army ranks and intelligence services that we didn’t know about, but Putin did?
Putin appears to be completely unmasked by this, as a figure barely in control of Russia. It paves the road ahead for his removal.
As someone said this morning, “none of this deal with Prigozhin passes the sniff taste. None of it”.
Putin will of course use all of this as an excuse to clamp down even further on Russian freedoms. He will shuffle his inner circle potentially, and remain even more paranoid and hidden than he already was.
But my feeling is the deal with Prigozhin to move his troops to Belarus is a mirage. And we will have to wait to see where the mercenary leader and his group surface in the coming days.
The good news is Prigozhin who is a far right brutal nationalist won’t be sitting in the Kremlin armed with nuclear weapons.
But I think he will resurface soon and likely be more dangerous than before.
And I don’t believe every and all aspects of this huge drama, because something seems hollow about it all, and when I put my finger on it you will be the first to know!
Especially suspect is the deal to call it all off.
Dana Lewis