Back Story
Good Morning,
Kherson
Jubilant scenes in the Ukrainian City of Kherson, of citizens embracing arriving soldiers are moving and poignant as Russia is in retreat, and Ukraine’s counter offensive is only gaining strength in the south of the country.
It’s a major setback for President Putin’s forces, and there is no way for the Kremlin to spin this as anything but bad.
Russian troops were shelled as they retreated across the Dnieper river, some drowned, and others fled in civilian clothes as Ukrainian forces swept into Kherson.
This was the only major regional City Russia had captured since the mad invasion began in February. An invasion Russian leaders at first labelled a “special operation” to “Denazify Ukraine”, then it was sold to the Russian public as a “religious war” against Liberal Democracies and a fight against “satanism”.
For the west it’s support for Ukraine to stop Putin’s fantasy of reconstructing the Soviet Union by expanding across Europe seizing first Ukraine and then who and what is next?
Today there will be revelations of tortures that took place in Kherson in the 8 months of Russian occupation, and news disappearances of Ukrainians and no doubt worse.
Kherson is one of four regions forced to hold referendum voting to join Russia, and even yesterday as news broke it was back in Ukrainian hands Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed it is part of Russia still.
Russia has pulled out of all of the Kherson region on the west bank of the river say Ukrainian officials. Dozens of villages have been reclaimed from Russian occupation.
Where does this war go from here? Russia is trying to dig in now and hold the line north of Crimea. But as Ukraine advances its artillery comes within range of shelling Crimea itself, the home of the Black Sea fleet.
Russia will try, it appears, to hold at least the Donbas which was one of the original goals of Putin to seize and annex. and is hoping the winter will stall the Ukrainian advance.
Ukraine will regroup, but has its sights set on reclaiming all the land invaded by Russian forces including the territory taken in 2014 when this conflict began.
Put the cheerleading for Ukraine taking back Kherson aside for the moment, and think clearly about what Putin has accomplished:
-NATO expansion of troop levels in Europe
-Nervous Finland and Sweden on track to join NATO
-Sanctions strangling the Russia economy
-The brightest and best Russians have fled their homeland taking with them companies and cash
-100 thousand Russians dead or injured in war
-Repeated battlefield humiliation of the Russian army
Putin hasn’t been seen this week even during the announcement of the withdrawal from Kherson by his defence chief Shoigu. Increasingly criticism, while not pointedly directed at Putin personally, is growing in Russia.
Putin appears to be far weaker inside Russia, no longer a strongman but a illogical chess player who has lost turn by turn strategic plays in Ukraine, not outmanned, but outgunned and outmaneuvered by Ukraine and it’s Western supporters.
As the war is lost by Russia, what was unthinkable when this began earlier this year, becomes not so far fetched after all. Could Putin may be removed from power by people or groups inside Russia who have lost too much and see no future with the aging and erratic former KGB spy as their leader?
Putin’s unwritten contract with the Russian people of economic prosperity and stability has been torn to shreds in a few months, and lies in tatters on Red Square.
Dana Lewis