Back Story News
Good day!
Ukraine
The reports have been back and forth all week, in terms of Russia has finally advanced in Donetsk to take a City called Soledar, and then conflicting reports saying in fact Ukraine still holds the centre.
The claims of victory were made by none other then Putin’s close ally, gun for hire Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, who posted a selfie of him supposedly in a Soledar salt mine. (Wagner is a private military company funded by Putin’s Kremlin)
But the Ukrainian President Zelensky quickly dismissed Russian claims, saying the situation is difficult, but Ukraine holds Soledar.
Why does Soledar matter and another City 6 miles away, Bakhmut? It’s one of the last pockets in the break away Donetsk region of Ukraine the Russian army hasn’t conquered and a thorn in Putin’s side, as he has already claimed this area as annexed to Russia.
And the fight by Wagner and regular Russian army forces has taken 8 months, and is as bloody as anything seen in WW1, including rotting bodies and waves of Russian assaults repelled in muddy trenches hammed by near constant artillery shelling by both sides.
And the salt mine has financial benefits, and the tunnels are strategic in that they run for miles and tanks etc can actually move under ground through them to resurface and fight in other areas. (It’s the largest salt mine in Europe)
Ukraine isn’t going to give up Soledar and Bakhmut now, and Russia is determined to take these areas, but so far…no victory for Russia, but it’s forces have slowly advanced.
New Weapons
So as Putin continues to throw more soldiers into this conflict, including rumours of a new mobilization that could claw in another 400-500 thousand troops, how does Ukraine win this war?
As the Israeli army facing bigger Arab neighbours used to say, it’s about qualitative vs quantitative.
Russia has the numbers. so Ukraine needs to not only be better motivated, but better armed.
So the U.S. is rushing in Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, 50 of them, with anti tank capabilities. Poland has promised a company of tanks, 14 of those and Britain is saying it will provide 10 tanks soon.
It’s all about urging Germany which has many more tanks in Europe because they make the Leopards, to step up and supply Ukraine with armour.
Germany is resisting, and that matters because it controls the export licenses on Leopard Tanks, which cannot be exported without Berlins permission, including Polands Leopards.
Expect more intense pressure on Germany to release tanks to Ukraine in the coming weeks.
Russia Deficits Growing
Russia meantime is spending more on it’s military, warning the war could be long. And it’s National Security budget is huge, to fund police to keep those anti war protests in check.
But Putin’s Russia is slowly choking on its loss of oil revenues to fund its war machine,
The Kremlin is dealing with a massive budget deficit due to the price cap effort, equivalent to $56 billion, in December alone.
The nation's oil export revenue fell by 15 million$ in the last week of 2022, and if prices for Russian oil stay at December levels, then revenues will fall by about 2.4 trillion rubles.
So is time really on Putin’s side?
A worsening economy together with a losing war, or at least a muddy bloody brawl, that won’t end soon, none of it can be good even for a delusional leader set on kick starting the old Russian Empire, just as Europe and American allies are just as set on making sure Russia stays put inside it’s borders, and is forced back from seizing part or all of Ukraine.
Dana Lewis