Weapons to Ukraine is an easy discussion to have, but a hard one to translate into game changing action.
More Patriots, maybe some tanks, and longer range artillery are all on the table as some 50 Defence Ministers are to meet in Ramstein Germany Thursday.
The UK has already pledged to give 14 Challenger 2 tanks, as an incentive to other NATO allies to do more.
The push is largely on Germany by other nations, that want it to give up its export license to Leopard 2 tanks. Germany sees providing hard armour as a road to escalation with Russia, it is loathe to travel.
But other leaders from the Baltics, to Poland and more think without the tanks Ukraine can lose this war, and are demanding Germany allow the tanks to go to Ukraine in large numbers.
There are more than 2,300 Leopard 2 tanks available or in storage in 13 countries, including Germany, and if a group of countries were to donate some of their tanks it could add up to a significant force on the battlefield.
By the way the German Defence Minister resigned this week, for failing to rapidly reorganize Germany’s armed forces, but the debate over Ukraine must have played a role.
14 tanks from the UK won’t alter the battle field, but a division of several hundred German Leopards could well do so.
But even if Germany relents and allows it’s battle tanks to enter Ukraine, it takes a massive effort to train and equip Ukrainians to operate them not to mention a huge logistical effort to resupply and repair them.
How short of time is Ukraine? Russia has advanced in Soledar and threatens Bakhmut.
There are rumours circulating President Putin’s army could attempt a new invasion wave on Kyiv, and even try to cut off European supplies entering from Lviv in Western Ukraine.
People who talk in terms of this happening in weeks seem alarmist, but certainly by Spring Russia could launch a renewed assault on Ukraine from Belarus and Russia.
Russia is mobilizing many more soldiers and ramping up its weapon supply lines as Putin shows no sign of realizing he can’t win this war, rather just the opposite.
As a Western TV Correspondent formerly based in Russia I have seen so called ‘secret cities’ where in the Cold War Russia had massive state supported centres of weapons manufacturing. Putin’s Russia is attempting to reactivate those assembly lines to rearm its army in Ukraine.
The war just keeps coming and Ukraine will need more and more to defend itself, and forecasts it might reclaim the East and even Crimea seem hopeful and distant.
Watch for unity vs dissent at Ramstein this week, because without fierce determination by it’s Western partners, Ukraine can’t win.
But just as prone to division and doubt is Russia and the Kremlin leadership, and a crack could appear anytime in Putin’s doubting inner circle.
Dana Lewis