Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
Putin’s Ukraine War
U.S. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Wednesday, “We would concur with the notion Mr. Putin has not been fully informed by his Ministry of Defense”.
It’s a strange statement in the sense one gets the idea Putin has no idea whats going on in the battle for Ukraine. I think Kirby’s statement, partially he hinted based on intelligence, was more nuanced than that, indicating overall Putin may think he is having successes where there have been failures.
And I think Putin may not fully understand the numbers of Russians who were killed on the battle field, and by some estimates those are somewhere between 10 thousand and as many as 17 thousand. The numbers are being hidden by Russian officials who have avoided even using the term “war”.
But overall I have no doubt that Putin is aware of how cities are being destroyed in Ukraine and of the brutal displacement of millions of Ukrainians. Having covered his first war in Chechnya, Putin doesn’t give any sign he worries for civilian casualties, and winning at all costs frames his decision making.
In Ukraine he has so far rejected a proposal by French President Macron, delivered in a phone call Tuesday, to evacuate Mariupol, saying only he would think about it.
In its readout of the call, the Kremlin said Putin had insisted to Macron that Ukrainian “nationalist militants” must surrender.
So Putin has labelled tens of thousands of innocent families “militants” and as he dubbed the countries “nazi’s and drug dealers” and has said Ukraine is “not a real country”.
I write this because I believe Putin intends to wage this war for months to come, until he wins whatever the costs. The costs will be more destroyed cities like Mariupol.
The notion Russian troops are currently withdrawing from places like Kyiv, is smoke and mirrors. Many of those soldiers have no food and are out of fuel and are low on ammunition.
While Putin may have temporarily given up on regime change in Kyiv, he has not change his view Ukraine is a “vassal” state to be dominated by the Kremlin. His forces appear to be heading for refit and repurpose in Belarus.
They will then likely move towards Eastern Ukraine to attempt to cutoff Ukrainian forces fighting there, and claim large swaths of the Donbas giving Russia a land bridge to Putin’s illegally annexed Crimea.
This is all some kind of guess work, because Russia, naturally not sharing its battle plans, but this is based on ground force movements, and statements coming from Russia.
I believe Putin is prepared to wage this war for months to come, and although the Ukrainians have stopped his forces in some areas, they have not been able to stop long range shelling and bombing and missile attacks.
The only thing that will change Putin’s calculation, is if Ukrainian forces backed by the West, can punish Russian forces to the point mounting troop losses and destroyed equipment make advances impossible.
Thus British Prime Minister Boris Johnson promising armoured vehicles to Ukraine, understanding the results of what happens on the ground, will reverberate through NATO allies, including the Baltics and Poland which are the closest to Russia.
On this a newly released Back Story podcast this week I talk with the Int. Crisis Group Olga Oliker who says the two sides don't yet appear ready for a deal.
And (Ret) Brig General Kevin Ryan, a Senior Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, on who is Putin really, and what can we expect him to do in Ukraine as the fighting stalls?
Check out the podcast at this link;
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1016881/10345978
Have a good day everyone and share/subscribe to this newsletter.
Dana