Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
European Security
Finland and Sweden announced yesterday, they will indeed join NATO which is a radical shift in European Security. NATO is threatening no one, but Russia is, and its invasion of Ukraine has rattled the continent.
President Putin has called into question the legitimacy of not only Ukraine, but the entire post Soviet space, which saw many nations that had been in the Kremlins clutch, declare independence and seek the protection of the west by joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organizations club, and the umbrella protection of article 5 which says an attack on one, is an attack on all.
Finland was invaded by Soviet Russia in 1939 when Stalin sought to extend its bordered around St. Petersburg, and when Finland didn’t agree it was attacked.
Many Swedish citizens volunteered to fight the Soviets and try to protect Finland, but were unsuccessful. The Soviet army that crossed into Finland was said to be a million strong.
Both countries are expected to be fast tracked into NATO within months, although Turkey’s President Erdogen has raised some concerns about Kurdish populations or as he called them “Kurdish terrorist organizations” residing in Scandinavian countries.
Russia’s reaction has been negative of course. But analysts I have spoken to say there is little Russia can do to stop this. Russian forces are already stretched thin and said to be close to collapse in Ukraine.
Russia will threaten to place nuclear weapons closer to Finland, although thats already happened in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.
Cyber attacks will likely target Finland and Sweden, but that too has been anticipated by the nations leaders.
Some of the biggest ever drills in the history of the Baltics by NATO are due to begin later today. Codenamed Hedgehog, the exercises will take place in Estonia over the next two weeks and involve 15,000 troops from ten countries, including the UK, US and current non-members Finland and Sweden.
Nato's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg has now said Ukraine may win the war against Russia.
"They failed to take Kyiv, they are pulling back from around Kharkiv, their major offensive in Donbas has stalled. Russia is not achieving its strategic objectives," Stoltenberg said.
Putins health - Notable are interviews and speculation with experts on Putin’s health. Over the weekend the Ukrainian intelligence chief claimed Putin is dying because of cancer and is suffering mental health problems as well. Others have said Putin may have blood cancer and Parkinson’s disease. The Kremlin has denied all reports, as it did with almost every other Russian leader including Boris Yeltsin, who was often hospitalized and had multiple heart attacks and surgeries, most hidden and denied by the Kremlin.
On this Back Story podcast, Sir. Mark Lyall Grant, the former National Security Advisor for Britain, says Ukraine may be forced to settle for a Russian seizure of the larger Donbas region, as the war looks set to drag on. But it will be a long term conflict, not easily solved.
And William Alberque is Director of Strategy, Technology, and Arms Control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and says Russia won't be able to stop Finland and Sweden from joining NATO. And he says if Russia resorted to the use of a tactical nuclear weapon, it would face retaliation from America and nuclear powers in Europe.
Link to the audio podcast:
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1016881/10611679
Racism In America
The attack in Buffalo on Saturday, by a white gunman who streamed the murders of 10 people in a supermarket has sent shock waves through black communities in America.
Almost all the victims were Black — shoppers, grocery workers and a security guard and the shooter 18 yr old Payton Gendron followed and echoed false social media notions of ‘gaining platforms’.
There is a larger rhetoric on line of an apocalyptic coming of a race war and white males have bought into false and dangerous theories of about declining White birth rates and an influx of immigrants.
Several other racist attacks on black Americans have been carried out by white shooters who have been misled online by sites spreading racist theories and this tragic attack in Buffalo will further fuel a national debate on how to tackle right wing racist and fake propaganda about race.
The ‘great replacement’ or "White replacement" theory has found a home on Fox News and other media platforms say critics. Tucker Carlson has been accused of being especially aggressive about promoting the notion that liberal elites are working to replace white Americans with more compliant immigrants.
The theories are lies and fuel hatred and should be removed from social media and main stream media platforms.
Northern Ireland
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is said to be playing a dangerous game in N.I. which could erupt in violence over a Brexit clause called the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Johnson who will be in Belfast today, wants to remove the protocol, which receives support from the European Union, and was part of Britains negotiated agreement with the E.U.
The Northern Ireland Protocol requires checks on some goods entering Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK and the EU has warned that if the UK takes action it could retaliate by introducing trade sanctions.
N.I. of course shares a common, largely unrestricted border with the EU member Republic of Ireland. Before Brexit, it was easy to transport goods across this border because both sides automatically followed the same EU trade rules. No checks or paperwork were necessary.
The border is a sensitive issue because of Northern Ireland's troubled political history. It was feared that cameras or border posts could become a target and lead to instability.
Johnson wants to do away with checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea which the EU says are mandatory.
Ok…that’s a big Monday morning news brief from me in London. Have a good day everyone. I have kids to get to school!
Dana Lewis