Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
Biden-Putin
It was a 2 hour video conference between the two Presidents of the two largest nuclear powers, and there was a lot to talk about. History for one thing even if it didn’t make the discussion, it was the back drop for all of it and the two perspectives on Ukraine.
Russian officials claim that America once promised never to expand NATO east to Ukraine. In fact the reality is the promise or pledge was made during the reunification of Germany, and then Soviet Chairman Gorbachev was told NATO would not position NATO forces in East Germany. That’s from Gorbachev himself so Putin’s claims are without merit. No promise was made concerning expansion of NATO in Eastern Europe.
The other piece of history was in 1991 Ukraine declared independence from the Soviet Union, but it wasn’t until 1994 Russia, the U.S, Britain and the leaders of Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum. Ukraine agreed to give up its Cold war era nuclear weapons, thousands of them in return for guarantees of sovereignty.
Here’s the first two sections of the agreement;
1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.
2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
If there was a broken promise it was Ukraine’s territorial integrity, as Russia under President Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014, seizing and annexing the Crimea, and stirring an uprising supported by Russian arms in Eastern Ukraine which continues to this day.
So the stage is set for conflict, why?
-Ukraine wants Russia out and wants to reunify the Eastern break away region
-An 8 year war has seen 14,000 Ukrainians killed
-Ukraine is pushing hard for full integration into Europes economic zone, and full NATO membership fearing Russia more by the day
-Putin has massed about 100 thousand troops on Ukraines border threatening further invasion as is sees Ukraine as part of its sphere of influence
So after Biden/Putins 2 hour chat nothing was clear, at least not in terms of an invasion. Putin has denied he plans one, like he did in Georgias invasion in 2008, like he did in Crimea in 2014.
But the call was a chance to make “crystal clear” to Putin, as characterized by U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, what will happen if Russia pushes further into Ukraine and it would be severe;
-Economic sanctions this time on Russia would be hammer blows, like suspending international banking access called SWIFT
-Baltic NATO nations now receiving rotating troop deployments from the U.S., Canada, Britain and others would receive more serious NATO fortifications and weapons. (Russia hates the idea of an anti missile system or Patriot anti aircraft batteries on its border)
-Economic penalties would include full mothballing of the Nordstream 2 gas pipeline form Russia to Germany, which would be a severe economic penalty for Putin
-Ukraine would receive additional but undisclosed weaponry to fight for it’s survival
According to Sullivan no promise was made to Putin to close the door to Ukraine ever joining NATO, that was not on the table nor will it be despite Putin’s invasion threat.
So the stick was waved and the carrot was also offered to Russia;
-deescalate and the U.S. will work to bring about a ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine
-The Minsk accords will be implemented which allow Ukrainians in largely Russian speaking Eastern Ukraine to have more autonomy (Although no Federal veto on NATO or EU integration as Russia wants)
Sullivan stated last night there was no finger wagging in the Biden Putin talks. There was lots of give and take. And “we will see through actions not words what Putin intends to do”.
The U.S. does not believe Putin has made a decision to invade yet. But is weighing his options. And if the read out on Bidens consequences given to Putin was accurate, it would be economic and strategic disaster for Russia to invade Ukraine further.
But Russia also sees its influence in Ukraine slipping away year by year.
Its war there has not created a failed state, but Ukrainians more and more are becoming part of Europe, and that includes democracy and economic success, and that, on Russia’s border is what Putin and his inner circle fears most.