Back Story Newsletter
Good morning and Happy New Years !
Ukraine-Russia-USA
Russian leader Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden held a second call over Ukraine which while largely confidential, saw both leaders exchanging increased threats and promises to keep talking.
Threats came in the form of Russia warning American against sanctions if Putin moves on Ukraine, suggesting a “complete rupture” in relations between the two largest nuclear powers. While Biden again “made clear that the United States and its allies and partners will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine” according to a White House statement.
Ukraine for its part is concerned the discussions are largely being kept secret for now.
Putin is a master at creating a crisis and then negotiating guarantees to put out the fire he has essentially lit in Ukraines border by massing more than 100 thousand troops.
He has been compared to a gangster boss who orders his thugs threaten to beat up a business owner and then suggests later he can intervene and provide protection.
In this case Putin has created much of the conflict in Ukraine, and is offering America to scale back the threat, in return for a ban on NATO expansion and assistance to Ukraine, and then suggestions Western powers limit forces in NATO Baltic countries and more on missile deployments including defensive systems.
Its classic Putin, and Biden must defend Ukraines independence or risk creeping Russian aggression in Europe. This is a proving to be a historic stand off that could end in war in Ukraine and crippling economic sanctions on Russia. A major test for Biden and Western European powers that may not end well.
I think now Russia will try to grab more territory in Ukraine in the coming months as it did when it annexed Crimea. The tone of Putins demands don’t indicate there is a peaceful resolution looming, and Russia it’s an extremely dangerous moment.
Have a listen to one of our latest podcasts on what sanctions could look like;
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1016881/9696867
Colorado Fires
The Denver post headlines today is “Devastating” describing wildfires ripping through Colorado and in the City of Denver itself.
A wind swept grassfire feeding on dry land, after record high summer temperatures and record low snow fall amounts, has forced the evacuations of tens of thousands and fires have destroyed hundreds of homes now.
It is climate change with stark and devastating results in the worst fires in Colorado’s history.
Covid Spread
We are entering the third year of Covid and the peak of infections driven by the Omicron variant are still climbing and will likely hit an all time high sometime in the 2nd week of January.
The pace of this latest wave is so rapid its measures in weeks not months, and scientific evidence indicates it will infect some 2.5 million people just in the U.S. by Jan 9. Daily infections are roughly 560 thousand now according to Thursdays CDC numbers.
Unlike other waves where stories of people getting the virus in my social network were relatively few, now I am surrounded by anecdotal accounts from friends either getting it themselves or someone in their family.
A New Years party cancelled in Miami, a family who can’t fly because one child has the virus. The stories are fortunately of mild illness such as flu like aches and pains and coughs and sniffles. But the virus is still spreading into older populations so the real situation is masked for the moment, and hopefully people are too!
In Florida where I am now, many people refuse mask suggestions, such as in my building where despite notices in elevators to please “consider masking” most people don’t.
In the UK daily cases are approaching 200 thousand, and deaths reported to be 57 on Wednesday rose to 332 on Thursday.
New Years
2022 is going to bring the U.S. mid terms and huge questions about America’s democracy. Challenges to the International order, climate change, Russia and Ukraine, China and Taiwan, and of course the pandemic and wouldn’t it be nice to report Omicron marks the decline of Covid’s impact? We’re not there yet.
Please subscribe to this newsletter if you haven’t already. You can be a free subscriber, or be a paid supporter. I am just lucky to be able to have you read this and thank you.
Have a quiet night, and a healthy beginning of 2022.
Dana
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12/30/how-long-will-omicron-last/
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/30/us/politics/biden-putin-ukraine-call.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/30/uk-covid-case-numbers-hit-another-record-high-at-more-than-189000