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Good morning,

War Crimes In Ukraine

The discovery of war crimes committed in Bucha Ukraine is driving the debate now on how to deal with Russia’s continued brutal invasion in Ukraine to another level.

The images of Ukrainians bound with hands behind their backs and shot in basements and along the main roads, have shocked the world as Bucha was reclaimed by Ukrainian trroops after five weeks of Russian occupation.

Now German intelligence is reportedly in possession of recorded radio traffic between Russian soldiers, including the Kremlin linked Wagner Group, a notorious paramilitary unit, confirming killings.

Independent satellite photos also show the bodies of Ukrainians while Russia was in control of Bucha, so attempts by Russian officials so suggest this was “staged” by Ukraine won’t convince anyone other than Russian’s watching Kremlin controlled TV at home.

-More Weapons, More Sanctions -

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has called this “genocide” and appealed for NATO to deliver more weapons, and the West to invoke harsher sanctions. Bucha may be just the beginning of a gruesome trail of human rights violations and crimes committed by Russian forces in Ukraine.

As many as 5000 people may have died in Mariupol which remains under siege and sealed off from outside help.

The UN General Assembly will vote today on whether to suspend Russia from the UN human rights council.

“Russian troops have changed their tactics and are trying to remove the killed people from the streets and basements of the occupied territory,” Mr. Zelenskiy said. They would not succeed in hiding evidence, because they killed a lot. Responsibility cannot be avoided.”

A meeting of NATO foreign ministers will discuss war crimes today, and how to provide Ukraine with key weapons platforms. Greece has announced it will push for the International Court in the Hague to probe war crimes in Mariupol.

Whats key here is the debate at NATO is changing, away from a distinction of weapons that are defensive vs offensive to include provisions of war planes, heavy air defence systems, missiles and armoured vehicles.

New sanctions have targeted Putin’s daughters, Katerina Tikhonova and Maria Vorontsova Faassen and one wonders why they weren’t sanctioned long ago.

But more significantly sanctions have hit Russia’s big banks now. The new sanctions will put full blocking sanctions Russia’s Sberbank which holds one-third of Russia’s total banking assets, and Alfabank, a senior U.S. official told reporters. Energy transactions are blocked.

And European countries are moving towards a ban on Russian coal. A ban would also block Russian ships from entering European ports.

-Russian Advance-

As confirmed by American and European Intelligence tracking Russian troop movements, Putin’s invasion force has now concentrated its posture on taking Eastern Ukraine in the area around the Donbas and linking it’s theft of the Crimea in 2014, to a land bridge along the Southern coast.

2 key Cities are said to be Izyum and Slovyansk which are currently in Ukrainian control. Russia will be trying to cutoff roads leading to and from those areas, and the Ukrainians will be fighting to keep access open for resupply.

Russia is hoping for a victory in the East, but it will be costly and could take weeks and months. And Ukrainian authorities have warned citizens in Eastern Ukraine should leave now while they still can, as Russian forces advance.

-Cyber Battlefield-

The United States said on Wednesday that it had secretly removed malware from computer networks around the world in recent weeks, a step to pre-empt Russian cyberattacks. The F.B.I. used court orders to take control of thousands of routers and fire wall appliances and remove the malware the F.B.I. says was placed by the Russian intelligence G.R.U.

U.S. officials have been warning that Russia could try to strike American critical infrastructure including financial firms, pipelines and the electric grid.

-Hungary-

Prime Minister Victor Orban - who has long been an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin despite Hungary's Nato membership is one to watch. Orban was re-lected earlier this week and may be the spoiler in European/NATO unity over Russia.

Hungary is opposed to many existing sanctions and has refused to supply weapons to Ukraine.

Yesterday, Orban told Putin that Hungary would be prepared to pay Russia in roubles for gas imports which other Countries have refused to do.

How will Europe deal with Orban? That’s always been a question, but today all the more pressing.

That’s a look at the war in Ukraine. I am travelling so I have been a bit slow to write this week. Apologies. Please share the newsletter and subscribe for free.

Dana