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Good Morning,
Putin’s View
Russian President Vladimir Putin stood outside a KGB outpost in East Germany in November of 1989, and instead of joining in the celebrations of jubilant freedom loving people, by his own account he drew a handgun and threatened to shoot anyone who dared to enter the building.
He said the protesters backed away, and Putin, a low ranking KGB officer watched his world crumble around him as the Berlin Wall came down and the Soviet Union which had occupied half of Europe crumbled too.
Putin sees history as cheating Russia, while most of the free world saw Soviet occupation as a brutal occupation strangling the freedoms of people who wanted to join western Europe and be liberated.
Last night the former low level KGB Lt. Colonel resurfaced in a dramatic way to take his revenge on history. But today Putin is an aging, angry and powerful President of a country with a million man army pointed at Europe and he aims to use it.
He has ordered his army now to enter the break away regions of Eastern Ukraine after formally recognizing those regions and in a rambling one hour speech, claiming Ukraine is not a real independent Country and decrying NATO as a threat to Russia.
It’s preposterous that Russia is calling the invasion a “peace keeping” force. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 to take Crimea, and then has funded and directed rebel forces in Eastern Ukraine ever since pretending somehow it was a neutral observer.
How far will his tanks go? It’s a vital question because the break away regions lay claim to a larger area than the current area of conflict and will certainly lead to a Russian army clash with Ukrainian soldiers.
What does Europe do to stop Putin who has also question the independence of Baltic nations including Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia?
As I write this Britains P.M. is in a meeting with his cabinet to likely invoke sanctions on Putins circle of oligarchs, including seizing wealth stashed in London.
Other European countries will do the same including even Germany which has to stick with it’s NATO allies despite energy dependence on Russia.
Key will be the response by President Biden. His administration has already been accused of being too slow to confront Putin and many have said that risks emboldening Russia further. Biden has so far said ordered sanctions on the two regions Putin is recognizing but where are the “swift and severe sanctions”?
Russia's order to deploy 'peacekeepers' in eastern Ukraine is 'nonsense', Linda Thomas-Greenfield, US ambassador to the United Nations said on Monday, adding that Moscow's recognition of the breakaway eastern regions were part of its attempt to create a pretext for a further invasion of Ukraine.
Speaking at an emergency UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine, Greenfield said the consequences of Russia's actions will be dire across Ukraine, Europe and worldwide and that the humanitarian toll will expand significantly if Moscow invaded further.
The fear is if America doesn’t stop Putin he may go further and seize Kyiv, replacing the democratically elected Government with a pro Kremlin one. The U.S. will be told by many, that Putin only respects force and power, and he is gauging U.S. and European will to confront him as weak and uncertain. He’s banking on that.
Here are some thoughts of my own after covering Russia and Putin since I was based in Moscow when he came to power in 2000.
-Putin will move to annex Eastern Ukraine if he can. I am certain of that but it won’t happen for some months or even years
-Ukraine will likely have to fight back to stop the taking of Cities in the way of the Russia army and that can quickly escalate the conflict
-Russia may try to interpret the so called break away region as much bigger, and that will include a land bridge to Crimea
-NATO will now have to move to reinforce its Eastern flank, meaning the larger re-militarization of part of Europe
-If NATO doesn’t act as one, NATO individual countries will most certainly act bi-laterally to support Ukraine as they are doing now. And Russia will react potentially drawing those nations into conflict
What has happened is an attempt to turn back the clock on post World War 2 security in Europe where nations borders are respected at all cost to avoid larger conflicts and war.
Putins playbook to divide Europe has now entered the most dangerous moment, because this conflict won’t end in Eastern Ukraine. It’s a very dark beginning to a deeper and more violent future in Europe and Putin can blame only himself for escalating the crisis in the name of protecting Russian security, but in reality doing everything to undermine it.
Dana
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60454795
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden-response.html