Back Story Newsletter
Good Morning,
Ukraine War Latest
Russian Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov went on CNN yesterday and blatantly lied saying “our military is not targeting civilian areas. He still called it a “special military operation” instead of a war. And a losing war at that, although Peskov didn’t say that of course.
As a reporter I have known Peskov for 20 years and have drank coffee with him on Red Square and in the Kremlin, as we discussed how the Kremlin press service handled media, and even requests for interviews with Putin.
Last night he looked deeply uncomfortable with questions even about Russia’s threats of nuclear weapons, and dutifully answered the official line - “Russian will use nuclear weapons if it feels an existential threat” - but he must have known his answers on why Russian launched this war, and why it lied it was about its intention to invade, were unbelievable at best. Peskov’s performance was abysmal and underscores Russia’s indefensible position in bombing civilian areas.
As he spoke shells rained down on the coastal city of Mariupol, many of them fired from salvos from ships in the Azov Sea. Thousands of people are trapped there and fighting is street to street as 90 % of this city of 400 thousand is destroyed now.
Near Kyiv, Ukrainian army units were counter attacking and retaking come areas close to the city. Russian forces were forced back in several towns.
Today, President Biden is heading to Brussels for an extraordinary NATO meeting, which will examine increased military aid to Ukraine, and more sanctions targeting Russia. An oil embargo is on the table, but not certain. More discussions of a no fly zone although it seems remote given opposition within NATO, where many countries see it as a direct confrontation between the alliance and Russia.
President Putin has launched a badly executed war in Ukraine, with the desire to isolate and weaken Ukraine and bring it back under Russia’s complete control. About 10,000 thousand Russian soldiers have been killed, and 15 thousand more wounded according to leaks inside of Russia but denied officially.
Other soldiers have abandoned vehicles, and run or have been captured. And many more Russian units are stalled without fuel and food. There is no firm casualty figure on Ukrainian deaths, although they are surely in the thousands as well.
So after all of this, does Russian leader Putin see that a call to end the conflict is now in Russia’s interest or is he isolated and not thinking clearly or making clear decisions?
I think the Russians are at least bent on sealing off the Sea of Azov and Black Sea coasts and with Mariupol, and then perhaps Odessa having a land bridge to the Crimea they seized in 2014. They can then at least claim some kind of victory including the independence and annexation of the Donbas. And that is a large area of eastern Ukraine.
They will not achieve a change of Government in Kyiv, or be able to storm it. So is that what a cease fire looks like? No. Because the Ukrainians won’t accept giving up eastern Ukraine now. And will demand Russian withdrawal.
The west see’s Putin’s desire as more than just denying Ukraine membership in NATO, but rather interprets statements from Moscow as a larger struggle for the post war order in Europe that is underway. The thinking in NATO countries is it’s better to fight Putin in Ukraine than in the Baltics or deeper in Europe.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov who only ever echo’s Putin’s positions claims the fight in Ukraine is about the world order.
“This is not about Ukraine at all, but the World order. The current crisis is a fateful, epochal-making moment in modern history. It reflects the battle over what the world order will look like".
Yesterday a man who has drawn parallels between Russia’s failed war in Afghanistan and the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine which may lead to Putin’s downfall, was sentenced to more than a decade in jail.
Alexei Navalny was sentenced to nine more years in prison on fresh charges of embezzlement and contempt of court, raising fears among allies that his life may be in danger in a remote colony after his near-fatal poisoning. He is already serving 2 1/2 years on other trumped up charges.
Navalny who was poisoned with a nerve agent in 2020, continues to tweet from prison using his lawyers and his organization which is now outside of Russia. Even this week he exposed another corruption investigation revealing a 700 million dollar Yacht docked in Italy is likely President Putins, staffed by Russian members of the Kremlin Secret Service or FSO.
Navalny has widely criticized Putins war as one which will drag Ukraine and Russia “into the swamp” and yesterday vowed his movement will be continue and be Global -
“Any activity against the deceitful and thievish Putin’s regime. Any opposition to these war criminals.
“In 2013, after hearing my first verdict, I wrote this and now I will repeat it: don’t be idle. This toad sitting on an oil pipe will not overthrow itself”.
Today the UN Security Council will hear up to 3 resolutions against Russia and its brutal war in Ukraine. The condemnation of Russia’s actions driven by one man, President Putin is almost unanimous, but in the Security Council, where Russia gets a veto, any resolutions condemning the war and calls for a ceasefire have repeatedly failed.
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Dana