Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
As I predicted yesterday, President Putin did not declare some new mobilization of his country or declare anything remarkable during the May 9th Victory Day celebration on Red Square.
From Sundays newsletter; “We will all be listening tomorrow for some kind of decision by Putin to expand his attack on Ukraine, but he may not announce a general mobilization as many have speculated. I think Putin has uncertain achievable goals in Ukraine, so he will press on with the fight and not be clear on his long term strategy or final concrete goals”.
So what are Putin’s goals? I think it’s unclear in Putin’s mind, otherwise he would be stating the end game. He will take what he can and then declare victory. That means a long war and likely grinding conflict with some kind of land grab in the east and south east.
Let’s be fair or at least sober - Russia has with no finesse taken Mariupol, or at least the city. It’s done it by destroying the city, and it’s done it much more slowly than the Kremlin may have predicted when this begin in late February. But Russia has taken that city and it won’t be taken back easily.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has admitted he doesn’t have the forces to retake it now. Later? Who knows.
Russia is strong in the Crimea and continuing to strike Odessa with missile fire indicated that is also in its gunsights.
In the north east Ukrainian counter attacks are gnawing at Russian supply lines and disrupting advances.
So Putin’s Red Square parade speech was short and sour, as you might have expected. He claims (for domestic consumption) Russia was/is only defending itself which is a lie because it wasn’t being attacked and was the aggressor.
"We saw military infrastructure being ramped up, hundreds of military advisers working and regular deliveries of modern weapons from NATO. (The level of) danger was increasing every day. Russia preventively rebuffed the aggressor. It was necessary, timely and ... right. The decision of a sovereign, strong, independent country” said Putin.
Putin has spoken at other times how Ukraine isn’t in his view historically a real country. And other Kremlin aides and members of Russian Parliament say the operation to wipe out Ukraine will continue.
The pageantry of the parade today was to again project might and power, but some of that aura has evaporated as we have seen how badly Russian soldiers have fought in Ukraine.
And of course for Russian’s the parade is meant to unify a country that is suffering under International condemnation and sanctions. The trauma of WW2 has been felt by most families in Russia, so it is the glue that cements Putin’s support.
But British Defense Sec. Ben Wallace framed the day this way calling Putin’s claims of defending Russia by attacking Ukraine “a fairytale”.
But Mr Wallace accused Mr Putin and his “utterly complicit” generals of “hijacking” the memory of Russian troops repelling the Nazis in the Second World War.
Instead he said they are “inflicting needless suffering in the service of lowly gangsterism”.
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Dana Lewis