Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
Putin’s Repression
Several thousand people have been arrested in different cities protesting war and mobilization. Granted, several thousand is not a lot in a country of 140 million, but anyone who demonstrates knows they will be brutally arrested. Would you dare to go to the street in that police state?
Up to a quarter of a million Russian’s have now fled trying to dodge to army draft, knowing the front line in Ukraine is a grim and deadly affair.
Russians have crossed into Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Georgia, Finland and been turned back from the Baltics which refuse to allow them in.
What’s Putin trying to do recruiting reservists to take the place of a professional army, if the professions couldn’t succeed, why would these 300 thousand or so call ups do any better?
Well it’s important to keep in mind the army is running on empty in terms of new troops to replace those killed, wounded, and just tired after 7 months with no battle break. If this rag tag mobilization can hold the line, it will buy the army time to refuel, rearm, and remobilize better forces.
Plus, the regions taken in Putin’s invasion are holding critical referendums this week. Call them a sham, but once the votes conclude, Putin will appear in the Parliament announcing Kherson, Zaporizhizha, Donetsk and Luhansk are free of Ukraine and now part of Russia.
No country aside from maybe Syria will recognize the annexations, and condemnations of illegal annexation will be loud and wide. But those around Putin say Russia will then use whatever force is necessary and in its arsenal, to respond to attacks.
Putin has warned he will use nuclear weapons and says he’s not bluffing. His defense Min. Shoigu has called this a war with the west. Some Russia law makers and even TV hosts have called for nuclear strikes on Poland, and on Britain’s London.
The rhetoric seems designed to frighten, and even Ukrainian President Zelensky has said nuclear deployment "could be a reality". "He wants to scare the whole world," he said. "I don't think he's bluffing. I think the world is deterring it and containing this threat. We need to keep putting pressure on him and not allow him to continue."
Thus the U.S. warnings to Russia a nuclear attack would be catastrophic and be met with a punishing response.
But to be clear, there is no clear idea where Russia would use a weapon or what kind of weapon.
Most people assume Russia would use a battle field tactical weapon, in Ukraine. That would be met with air strikes from NATO even within Russia if thats where the launch came from. How that would not spin out of control into a nightmare scenario is beyond my imagination, and I have covered nuclear arms negotiations and nuclear safeguards for 2 decades.
If the weapon is a ballistic missile launched from a submarine or silo or bomber, within minutes America and others including France and Britain, which have their own nuclear arms, would be making calculations and possibly launching counter strikes while Russia’s missile is still in the air.
Would NATO use counter nuclear strikes if Russia bombed Ukraine’s capitol Kyiv? Doubtful, but any nuclear attack would bring a response so unpredictable and dangerous its hard to war game this, even for people who have made careers in doing just that.
The mutually assured destruction pillars of arms control have always relied on the assumption leaders of nuclear countries are sensible and sober. Is Putin at this point?
Some think not including French President Macron who said on the sidelines of the UN Meeting last week he thinks Putin’s war is a product of his isolation during the pandemic.
I’m not writing all this to predict some ‘end of days’ scenario. But Russia is about to claim territories is barely holds onto in Ukraine are part of Russia, and continued Ukrainian offensive backed by the west are an attack on Russia itself.
The war will continue, and Putin will get more angry and threatening, and just calling his bluff is a potentially disastrous game of poker, while leaving the table and folding our cards after supporting Ukraine is no longer an option either.
Ukraine won’t blink, nor will its allies. And this frightening chapter will play out when towards at end of this week on September 30, Putin is rumoured to address the Federal Assembly to announce the annexations of eastern Ukraine have taken place and now Russia will do anything to defend them.