Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
War In Ukraine
It’s an unprecedented, historic struggle we have never witnessed in our lives. A dictator bent on using force to reshape the map of Europe, seemingly unable to succeed in his quest to subjugate a smaller neighbour now fighting a David and Goliath life and death quest to stay independent.
And because Ukraine has managed to hold out long enough to prove to the World it can succeed in fighting the dark forces of Russian President Putin, at least for a few days, the World has been stirred to rally with everything it can to stop the invader and support the defender.
The Kremlin is concerned - Putin ordering his nuclear forces on higher alert. Because of “aggressive rhetoric” and economic sanctions. The U.S. says Russia is manufacturing threats that don’t exist. The U.S. has not changed its nuclear posture.
Russia has now admitted it is taking losses in Ukraine which is the first acknowledgement Russians are dying in Putin’s war which isn’t called that in Russia of course which downplays the conflict in state run media. Despite more than 5000 Russians have been arrested in antiwar demonstrations.
I have never seen the U.S. and Canada and Europe and Japan and Australia, come together and unify the way it has to support Ukraine now, and the list of items and actions is too long to list here today.
But here’s a few mentions;
-Russia Today Channel has been taken off the air across Europe to silence Putins lies
-The EU has closed air space to Russian commercial airlines and Russian registered private jets
-Some big Russian banks have been expelled from Swift payment system and many Russians and companies are on sanctions lists and even the UK is promising to seize Russia assets belonging to Putins wallets - the Oligarchs.
-Oil/gas prices are rising as Russia is pushed out of international markets. Russia is a big gas station and the only source of real wealth if energy
-Russia’s 50 bill in reserves will buy it some time as sanctions begin to squeeze, but not for long and today we may see a run on Russian banks and the ruble is tumbling
Sanctions will hurt Russia, but also the World economy and as markets open today we will see blowback.
Today Ukraine will meet Russia for talks on the Belarus border, but the expectations are these discussions will provide nothing to stop the fighting. And the next 24 to 48 hours are critical if Ukraine is to thwart the invasion as large convoys of Russian forces march towards Kyiv and other cities.
Belarus is now indicating it may join Russian forces inside Ukraine, which cements President Lukashenko on the Putins pariah list, but he was already largely there after a pushing refugees towards Poland, highjacking an airplane to arrest a journalist, and brutal repression of protesters who took to the streets to demand a fair election.
Someone asked me on the weekend it I feel President Putin has become unhinged? I think we need to be cautious in trying to write all this off to Putins mental state. He and his circle of hardliners have strategic notions of an Imperialist Russia and he has concrete targets. Putin will try to dominate the Soviet Republics in Kazakhstan and Central Asia, Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, and soon the Balkans which is a tinder box.
He is moving with strategic and planned calculations and Europe is responding to what’s happening in Ukraine with this in mind. NATO is drawing a redline in its 30 membership States including the Baltics.
Putin may have changed during the pandemic, becoming more isolated and less grounded, but he has simply revealed his long time goals to reestablish Russia in the ‘near abroad’. He has for sure become more overtly dangerous and with his nuclear threat on the weekend, and more desperate as things don’t go his way. And it’s hard to calculate what he is capable of as he is backed into a corner.
We will have some heart break moments in Ukraine. It’s not over. The next few days are critical as Putin pours more troops in Ukraine, and even rallies Chechen fighters to his cause - many who have fought in Syria and Afghanistan, were seen on the road to Kyiv in the last 24 hours.
On Back Story w/Dana Lewis podcast this weekend interviews with sanctions campaigner Bill Browder. An interview with a former British diplomat on Putins mental state. And a U.S. military planner talks about what a Ukrainian insurgency fight could look like if it comes to that.
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1016881/10149966
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Dana