Back Story Newsletter
Good Morning,
War In Ukraine
As the sun rose over Ukraine this morning air raids sirens were sounding in Kyiv and Russia was not in control of the huge country it attacked more than 24 hours ago. The Ukrainian army is fighting back.
The target of widely condemned Russian leader Vladimir Putin, appears to be regime change and full control of all of Ukraine. That is according to many outsider observers now, and by Ukrainian President Zelensky who says he is target number one, and his family is target number two. Zelensky has said he wants to stay in Kyiv but Zelensky may have to flee or face capture or be killed.
The Ukrainians have been fighting, re-taking for instance an airfield from Russian paratroopers on the edge of Kyiv. But the Russians just keep on coming from three directions, including from Belarus which cooperated with the Kremlin and faces new sanctions.
In the east fighting was said to be heavy along the ‘line of contact’ which is where Ukrainian forces have been dug in for 8 years fighting separatists. And from the south Russian troops landed along the Black Sea coast, but also pushed north from Crimea. The Ukrainians say 137 soldiers have died so far.
Overnight a large fireball and debris over Kyiv now appears to have been a Ukrainian fighter jet that was shot down.
There is a ban on 18 to 60 yr old males in Ukraine from leaving, as Ukraine looks to fight a resistance war with a civil guard.
Today we will hear of more cities falling to Russian troops, and of course Kyiv is key in Putins plan to control his neighbours which is being described in the darkest of terms.
UK P.M. Johnson - “Its a dark day in the history of our continent” and Putin he said “must fail”
EU Chief Ursula von der Leyen - “the beginning of a new era” Mr. Putin is trying to “redraw the map of Europe by force”
French President Macron - the Russian attack on Ukraine marked a “turning point in the history of Europe and our country” that would have “deep and lasting consequences for our lives”
NATO Chief Stoltenberg 'This is a deliberate, cold-blooded and long-planned invasion,’ Stoltenberg said
President Biden called Putin “a pariah” an “aggressor” who “chose this war” a “brutal assault” and an attempt to “re-establish the former Soviet Union”
Sanctions - The U.S. stopped short of removing Russia from SWIFT which is a messenger service allowing countries to transact in U.S. dollars. Biden said there wasn’t full agreement with European countries. But the U.S. was freezing trillions of dollars in Russian assets, including the funds controlled by Russian elites and their families .
A former U.S. Treasury official told me “Hey, this is very solid. Lots of impact to major banks, including private ones, and left themselves plenty of room for escalation. Also took a swipe at Gazprom’s external financing which was excellent”.
But escalation at this moment seems a pointless exercise if sanctions are meant to stop Putin. Rather they appear to be set in place by the U.S. and Europe and other allies like Canada, as a way to desperately penalize and isolate Putin, and long term punish Russia and restrict its industrial capacity including its military.
The sanctions target Sberbank and VTB Bank, the country's two largest accounting for about half the banking system and "$46 billion worth of foreign exchange transactions globally" every day, the Treasury said.
Russians have reacted with mixed and confused views over the Ukraine invasion. Firstly Russian media is not using the word ‘invasion’ and Kremlin controlled media outlets are regurgitating Putins view “there is no other option” because Ukraine is “such a security risk” as he called the war '“a denazification” which is a tough sell considering President Zelensky is Jewish.
Putin appears to be surrounded by paranoid cold war security officials, and is growing more extreme by the day as he approached 70 yrs of age. Is his intention to restore part of the Soviet Union?
There have been anti war demonstrations in Moscow, St. Petersburg and about a dozen other Russian cities even though protesters faced immediate arrest by authorities. Let’s see today if banking sanctions effect cash withdrawals at Russian banks, and longer term and if inflation and shortages of foreign goods are felt by Russians.
Russia has taken Chernobyl, the site of the 1986 nuclear meltdown where one of four reactors is still an underground radioactive time bomb. There is also nuclear waste and fuel stored in the area which hopefully was not effected by what was described as heavy fighting. The other three reactors are shut down and have been since 2000.
So far Russia has only committed about 50% of its fighting forces say experts so they will keep on coming today.
Western nations have helped Ukraine set in place a long term resistance, that could be based in Western Ukraine, or more problematically in a NATO country closer to Ukraine.
If Putin tries to install a puppet Government in Ukraine, it would likely face many challenges including fierce resistance by the population. As we’ve seen in many other conflicts, its relatively predictable a large army can overwhelm and and declare victory in another country, but to then standup a Government and stop a resistance is strenuous, expensive and is often a doomed to fail, bloody venture.
As we speak NATO Baltic countries are receiving more support in terms of troops being moved from across Europe, and even from the U.S.
NATO is beefing up its air, naval, and army forces closer to Russia and instead of those being rotational troops movements there is serious talk of permanent and larger basing of U.S. forces to protect Europes Eastern flank. We will begin to witness the remilitarization of Europe as in the Cold War as this conflict deepens. Putin’s attempt to push NATO back from its borders will achieve the exact opposite.
There is also a discussion now with NATO member Turkey of restricting Russian Naval movements. The 1936 Montreux Convention allows Turkey to close the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, which link the Mediterranean and Black seas.
That’s a long, but in many ways too brief summary of the news on Ukraine today. And I fear this will very quickly be eclipsed by rapidly developing events on the ground.
Take care everyone and I will update.
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Dana