Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
IRAN UPRISING
In Iran, street protests and anger have spread for a week and the regime is so far unable to crush the uprising. At least 9 are dead and Iran has tried to shutdown the internet to control protests.
THE SPARK - Morality police detained 22yr old Mahsa Amini last week, saying she didn't properly cover her hair with the Islamic headscarf - known as the hijab - which is mandatory for Iranian women. Miss Amini collapsed at a police station and died three days later.
The US Treasury has now reacted with sanctions against the leaders of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security, the Army's Ground Forces, the Basij Resistance Forces, and other law enforcement agencies which deny them access of their properties and bank accounts held in the US.
The protests have been most intense in the Kurdish region, where the authorities have previously put down unrest by the Kurdish minority numbering eight million to 10 million.
Russian Mobilization
Russia has likely lied about how broad its attempt to bolster army forces fighting and losing in Ukraine is, first saying the mobilization would only effect recent reservists from the army numbering 300 thousand.
But since the desperate call up this week announced in a threatening address to the nation by President Putin, Russian reports suggest the mobilization document in fact says a million Russians could be drafted to fight in Ukraine.
Thousands of Russian men have been trying to leave the country rather than serve in the army. Airports have been jammed with men trying to take a flight, destination ‘anywhere’ but here.
Already there is evidence Russia is mobilizing students and men who have not previously served in the army.
Roads have been jammed into Mongolia and Finland and Georgia with fleeing Russian’s although the Baltic nations have said they will not allow Russian men to enter.
The EU has sent mixed signals on whether Russians could claim asylum status.
Whats clear is this mobilization, which President Putin previously said was not in the cards, is a panicked move by the Kremlin after Ukrainian counter offensives reclaimed 3000 sq miles of territory, and is now pushing on the Russian front line in the south east of the country.
Russia has also announced it will support, independence referendums in four territories in Ukraine it wants to annex and that it invaded starting back in February.
In the eastern Donetsk and Lugansk regions - which Putin claimed were ‘independent’ from Ukraine before the invasion - residents will have to answer if they support their “republic’s entry into Russia”, according to Russian state news agency TASS.
Ballots in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions ask: “Are you in favour of secession from Ukraine, formation of an independent state by the region and its joining the Russian Federation as a subject of the Russian Federation?”
World leaders have already condemned the votes as shams that no one, least of all Ukraine will ever recognize.
Several thousand anti war protesters have been arrested in Russia and some of those protesters are being forced into army service.
What kind of soldiers will Russia now send into Ukraine, and how motivated will these people be to fight? The answer is they will not be motivated at all and if a professional army couldn’t win in Ukraine, analysts say this mobilization is doomed to fail.
Putin’s police using heavy handed tactics in arresting people outside of schools and in subway stations, will drive many Russians away from supporting the regime. Former P.M. Mikhail Kasyanov tells me he predicts Putin’s regime is now doomed and we could be witnessing the last few months of its desperate struggle to keep power.
While Putin has threatened nuclear weapons, assessments of his mental health are frightening even Russians. French President Macron stated this week he “I have no rational explanation,” he added, calling the invasion the “strategy of Germany intervention” and a “post-Covid-19 consequence” due to Putin’s isolation during the pandemic.
If the notion of a crazy Russian President with his finger on a nuclear button doesn’t get your attention, I’m not sure anything will.
Other News…
- the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit in Atlanta overturned the decision of Judge Aileen Cannon saying that the Department of Justice could not use the materials seized in the August 8 search of Mar-a-Lago until a special master had reviewed them. The 11th Circuit agreed with the Department of Justice that the 100 or so classified documents are exempt from that decision. It ruled that the Department of Justice and the FBI can proceed with both the national security investigation of the documents with classified markings
-Central banks across Asia and Europe are raising interest rates to attack inflation. Here in Britain interest rates jumped half a point to 2.25% and the Bank of England said Britain may already be in a recession
-All eyes are on the Laver Cup over the next few days following Roger Federer’s announcement that he would be retiring from tennis after suffering from a long-term knee injury. The 20-time Grand Slam champion will be playing his last ever match alongside Rafael Nadal on Friday. Match starts 8:30pm London time against Jack Sock and Frances Tiafoe at the O2 in London
Back Story With Dana Lewis Podcast
On this weeks edition I am putting together today, an interview with former Russian P.M. Mikhail Kasyanov on the mobilization and Putin, and NYTimes Peter Baker on Trump and democracy and his new book The Divider.
Have a good weekend!