Back Story Newsletter
Ukraine and Russia
Step back I suggest, and think where is this war heading and what’s the true state of the conflict in Ukraine?
Often in this conflict we are hearing American analysts saying “Russia is losing”, or “Russia is being beaten back”, or “Russia’s army is close to collapse”.
And yet the fighting goes on and Russia controls large parts of the east of Ukraine and may control those areas permanently.
Yes Ukraine has fought back around Kharkiv, but other cities are under Russian control and no one is talking about retaking Mariupol right now.
So where does this lead us?
I think analysis which says the ferocity of this war can’t continue for long is accurate. Neither side can carry on the intensity of the war for more than a month, or two or three.
After that Russia will declare it has annexed certain areas, and Ukraine will for the moment be hard pressed by Germany, France, Turkey and others potentially to agree to a cease fire.
In the meantime NATO will expand to Russia’s borders further with the acceptance of Finland and Sweden.
American already tires of the conflict under political pressure to respond to internal anger over high food and fuel prices.
The Ukrainian leadership won’t easily be able to give up land after so many Ukrainians have died valiantly resisting overwhelming Russia forces and fire power.
On my Back Story podcast this week, a really thoughtful interview with Britains former National Security Advisor Sir. Mark Lyall Grant, who says Ukraine may be forced to settle for a Russian seizure of the larger Donbas region, as the war looks set to drag on. But it will be a long term conflict, not easily solved.
And what would America or France or the UK do if Putin resorted to a nuclear strike? There would be a counter strike. Would it be nuclear or conventional? This crazy scenario has actually been war gamed.
William Alberque who is Director of Strategy, Technology, and Arms Control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies discusses what could happen.
Here’s the audio link to the podcast. Great interviews.
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1016881/10611679
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Dana Lewis