Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
(Photo Kyiv today. Ukraine Emergency Services)
Russia’s War Against Ukraine
The videos on social media and now in mainstream press, are tragic and maddening. This AP video takes you to the war zone and Russia’s brutal disregard for any civil rules of war. Tanks firing on populated areas.
Residential buildings are being shattered in Ukraine from missiles and artillery. Russian tanks are firing on civilian apartments, many of them in the port city of Mariupol.
Its stomach turning, and shows the depths Russian commanders will sink to take cities they haven’t been able to starve but have encircled.
Mariupol has been cut off for 2 weeks, and roughly half of the city of 400,000 has been destroyed. It’s a war crime and amounts to Putin’s scorched earth victory at any cost plan.
The same will happen in Kharkiv, Odessa, and Kyiv is Putin is not stopped somehow. but how? His army losses and deaths that can be as many as 12,000 soldiers to date say Ukrainian Defense Officials seem to have little effect on the little man isolated in his room with video monitors, and seemingly cutoff from reality.
There are cease fire talks with Russia and Ukraine today, but Russian demands full capitulation, and Ukrainian defiance is unwavering.
Who could have imagine an invasion this big and destructive when Russia was amassing its troops on the Ukraine border for months, and denying it intended to start a war? And it’s still denying it inside Russia, where many Russians don’t see the death and destruction in Ukraine.
Putin’s Kremlin has muzzled any opposition to the war and silenced any criticism. President Putin believes only he can map out Russia’s future as an Imperial power, and in Russia the citizens are there to serve the state, and individual rights are now minimal. 15 thousand anti war demonstrators have been arrested.
I am writing for a moment about Russia, because we need to understand the notion of opposition to this war, changing Putin’s strategy is such a remote possibility it’s wishful thinking only. Social economic protests may occur but later, but its a big maybe. Most European minded Russians will leave and many I know have already departed.
And, Putins twenty two year strangle hold on power, as he time after time altered constitutional restrictions on the Presidency, (Originally 4 and then 6 years) has made his current highjacking of Russian democracy so complete its snuffed out any hope for change.
The Economist wrote “Putin is isolated and morally dead. He is turning himself into a 21st-century Stalin, resorting as never before to lies, violence and paranoia at home”.
So what now? Can Ukraine win against this destructive war that keeps clutching ever closer to Kyiv’s centre? I think it might, but the city won’t be left standing at the end. Videos posted this weekend claim to show Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov near the Ukraine capitol vowing to fight for Putin.
On the weekend a 50 yr old American film maker/journalist was shot in the head in Kyiv entering the suburb of Irpin in a civilian car.
For a Ukrainian resistance to continue, Western Ukraine needs to stay in Ukrainian hands. This weekend Russian missiles slammed into a military base near Lviv, killing 35 people. This is a base where Western trainers have used in the past to assist the Ukraine army. Russia appears more ready to strike further west but its already stretched its forces too thin.
There are new calls for warplanes to be given to Ukraine to defend its skies, even after the U.S. rejected an offer from Poland last week to deliver 28 Soviet era Migs.
The U.S. has widely leaked reports that Russia has now reached out to China asking for economic and military aid including drones. The White House warned Beijing would face severe “consequences” if it helps Moscow evade sanctions.
Are we about to see a war pitting the U.S. led NATO against China and Russia? China has to be navigated with extreme caution at this dire moment.
That’s my look at Ukraine this morning. I will write later this week on Chemical/Biological weapons threats.
Try to enjoy your day.
Dana