Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
Putin’s War on Ukraine
We have been transported back somehow to what our parents and grandparents were watching and witnessing in WW2 even though I would have thought it couldn’t be in the 21st century in Europe.
Stunning and disturbing pictures of refugees, of burning ships in ports, and ruined cities, brought about by a month of fighting in Ukraine driven by Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin, who has revealed himself to be a man without conscience or morals.
Many Russians who understand what is taking place are in shock themselves for this brutal onslaught on a country they have always considered to be a friendly neighbour. It has prompted many Russians I know to leave their country questioning if they can ever go back while Putin remains in power.
On Back Story podcast, listen to former Russian P.M. Mikhail Kasyanov who predicts a coup against Putin by his inner circle of “servants and yes men” is not realistic. But sanctions in the next few months will make many Russians at home understand what they are being told by the Kremlin, that this is not a war, that its a limited military operation, will become unsustainable and unbelievable.
Russians will awaken slowly to what the rest of the World already sees and is united in rejecting. And those who continue to follow Putin are likely denying the truth.
Also on Back Story, Soufan’s Colin Clarke says this failing war has hastened Russia’s decline to a third rate power and ushered in a bi-polar World of democracies vs authoritarian Governments, America vs China.
And we talk to writer and resident of Kyiv, Paul Niland who thinks Putin is crazy.
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1016881/10310869
President Biden is in Europe heading to Poland after his meeting at NATO yesterday.
In response to the invasion, NATO leaders have activated defense plans, deployed parts of the NATO Response Force, and have stationed 40,000 troops on its eastern flank, the leaders said in a joint statement.
The leaders also announced they were establishing four additional multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia, and taking precautions in contemplation of a possible Russian chemical attack in Ukraine.
Would a chemical attack be considered an attack on NATO if it threatened Poland or neighbouring Baltic countries?
The answer on how NATO would react to a limited chemical or even a tactical nuclear attack in Ukraine is not clear, and would depend on the size of the attack and fallout. But the fact I am writing about it, and NATO is discussing it, tells you there is intelligence Putin could resort to these weapons which could usher in a broader more serious and much more dangerous conflict in Europe.
Putin, isolated and seemingly delusional, has to be taken seriously on his threats that go beyond Ukraine to former Soviet countries. It would be fool hardy not to take him at his word, that he wants to turn the clock back on the last 30 years. On Russian TV hosts discuss attacking Poland, or forming a land bridge to Kaliningrad, Russia through Lithuania. This is real and crazy talk.
Russian cutoff from its dollar reserves is countering sanctions and using gas as a source of blackmail against Europe, now announcing it will demand payment for energy in Russian Rubles.
Although the details of the new arrangement aren't clear yet, Putin's demand for payments in rubles essentially forces European companies to directly prop up the Russian currency after it was sent into free fall by sanctions.
Germany and Poland say the Ruble demand is a breach of contract. Poland has refused to pay, but both countries rely heavily on Russian energy. More on that today as President Biden is in Poland.
Notable is the Russian Defense Minister who is missing in action after not being seen since March 11. Sergei Shoigu is said to be “busy” by the Kremlin but his absence is suspicious.
Yesterday Shoigu did pop up in a video conference with Putin but the picture appeared to be fake. In the footage released by state-run RIA news agency, an image of Shoigu mysteriously appears on the top left-hand corner of a video split screen set up in front of Putin as the Russian President spoke to his Security Conference.
In the moments before an image of Shoigu appears, his screen is black and the image shakes about for a few seconds - despite all of the other officials appearing clearly on the screen from the beginning of the call.
The clip did not contain audio nor did it show Shoigu speaking. And Shoigu’s younger daughter Ksenia, 31, was seen posing in the Ukrainian colours of blue and yellow in a photo posted online. Shoigu may be sick, or Putin may have removed him from his role as Commander of forces in Ukraine.
Russian forces are making progress in their brutal, destructive attack on Mariupol. They have been driven back in areas near Kyiv. And a Russian war ship was attacked and sunk in the port of Berdyansk.
Putin may be ready for months of fighting, with no regard for Ukrainians, and it appears even less care for his own soldiers who are bogged down with little food and fuel, and deteriorating morale. And Russian casualties are mounting in Putin’s war.
Try to have a good weekend everyone.
Dana