Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
Putin’s Choices
This last week saw an unexpected victory for Ukrainian forces that has taken Putin’s war in a completely new direction.
Boxers call it a ‘feint’, when you distract and lure your opponent to expect one thing, and strike with a completely different assault. That’s what Ukrainian leaders did by widely advertising a coming counter offensive in the south of Kherson, and they instead struck in the north in Kharkiv.
Ukraine managed to move hundreds of soldiers and armour forces and artillery without the Russians being aware. And with a lighting strike Ukraine rolled into Russian positions taking Russian prisoners and claiming hundreds of pieces of enemy armour.
It is by definition a rout. At least 3000 kilometres of Ukrainian lands reclaimed, (1800 sq miles) and the assault has not ended.
Russia is reeling in anger, humiliation and unable to regroup quickly. Entire units have been shredded in battle in Ukraine and it will take months and years to reconstitute battle groups.
President Putin has been silent while the always obedient media dogs of the Kremlin seem to be chaffing at the leash of censorship demanding answers.
Hosts have acknowledged a bad week, and well known commentators with close Kremlin connections are asking why Russia doesn’t completely destroy Ukraine’s infrastructure in response and escalate the conflict further? Some have even discussed nuclear options. (By the way targeting civilian power stations etc is a war crime)
President Putin appears to have completely misread Ukraine led by his intelligence services which back in February predicted an easy victory and capitulation of Ukraine.
Ukraine is a well armed, (in fact better armed now than ever) ferocious nation, united in opposition to Russia’s illegal invasion.
So what now? What are Putin’s options?
Ukraine will try to reclaim all territory in the east, still a fifth of it occupied by Russia including the Crimea.
Putin’s options are limited and obvious, but his regime may be courting anger and unrest within Russia whatever he does now.
-general mobilization calling up 2 million reserves
-cut off grain exports from Ukraine again
-escalate missile strikes on Ukrainian centres and population centres
-use chemical/nuclear weapons
-dig in for winter hoping to regroup forces and annex the Donetsk
-withdraw and enter into peace talks
My bet is Putin won’t stop, and won’t give an inch. He has operated the same in Syria and Chechnya. He is bull headed and largely uncaring about his troop losses, so he will shuffle his generals and focus on keeping Donetsk and breaking it away.
But this presents Ukraine with opportunity. Ukrainian forces have momentum and and an upper hand at present on the battle field. Ukraine will retake cities it has lost like Kherson.
Once that’s accomplished Ukraine’s longer range weapons will be within striking distance of the Crimea and Putin’s Black Sea fleet Hdq’s.
And Ukraine has now, for the moment at least, not only fought back Russian invaders, but also European allies pushing a political settlement as western economies reel in the wake of energy pricing pushing businesses towards bankruptcy.
Putin is causing chaos and that’s just where he likes to be, driving instability in the west.
I predict this bloody conflict is about to escalate in dangerous ways. It will become more unpredictable and more frightening. The only wild card would be an attempt to remove Putin from power inside Russia. It’s doubtful, but never say never.
Other News…
The Queen’s coffin entered London yesterday, on her final journey to Windsor castle. The crowds in London will be in the hundreds of thousands to view her casket in Westminster hall. Today her family including King Charles, and her two grandsons William and Harry will walk behind the Queen as the casket moves from Buckingham palace to Westminster. The scenes will be reminiscent of Princess Diana’s funeral in 1997 but many thousands more will come to pay their respects. Thousands of people are flying into London from all over the world to attend the funeral. The security operation is massive. People have been sleeping in pouring rain along the Thames for a place to see the coffin pass. The scenes of emotion and loss are overwhelming.
Have a good day everyone.
Dana Lewis