Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
Russia-Ukraine
I have followed Russia and reported on it and from it for 25 years. I can tell you watching and hearing the rhetoric, the crisis is worsening and I am worried President Putin has backed himself into a corner.
If he advances into Ukraine he facing crippling sanctions, and Europe that appears to be united and holding firm, perhaps more than he anticipated. And it’s difficult for him to find what the American diplomats like to term “an off ramp” to save face.
Whats changed in the last week? Yesterday the U.S. revealed what it said was a plan to fake video using actors, where Russia would try to dupe the World and its own domestic audience.
The plot was to fabricate an attack by the Ukrainian military, on Russian speaking Ukrainians in the East, or on Russia itself, and President Putin would then have a pretext for invading to prevent the genocide of ethnic Russians.
The video was intended to be elaborate with plans for graphic images of the staged, corpse-strewn aftermath of an explosion and footage of destroyed locations. They said the video was also set to include faked Ukrainian military equipment, Turkish-made drones and actors playing Russian-speaking mourners. The U.S. would not release more proof of the video or plot, because it would endanger sources.
Russia will call the revelations fake, as the U.S. describes Putins massing of Russian forces on Ukraines border a gun to Ukraines head and a direct threat to invade as well as an attempt to destabilize NATO countries near Russia’s borders.
Moscow has accused Washington of escalating tensions by deploying 3000 troops to Poland, Romania, and Germany. But the U.S. is answering calls to reinforce NATO countries which feel threats from Putin’s Russia are real, and relations are on a knifes edge.
Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said "We are constantly urging our American partners to stop escalating tensions on the European continent," charging that "Unfortunately, Americans are continuing to do it”.
Other NATO countries stepped up arms shipments to Ukraine including anti aircraft weapons, and anti tank.
Russian media reports American is escalating the crisis with Ukraine because the Pentagon wants new defense contracts and is intentionally pumping up tensions.
But Pravda for instance, goes on to list a series of Russian military deployments World wide.
-”large Russian warships with calibre missiles spotted off the UK”
-”Russia deploys troops for 10,000 kilometres” (Belarus)
-”Mission ready nuclear submarines of Russian Pacific fleet urgently leave Port”
-”Russian nuclear submarine with 160 nukes surfaces off U.S. coast”
If this isn’t sabre rattling by the Kremlin I don’t know what is, and if it’s a bluff Putin seems to be doubling down trying to frighten Europe and the U.S.
Today Putin meets Chinese leader Xi in Beijing as the Winter Olympics kick off but pending U.S. sanctions against Russia will most certainly be a topic, and the U.S. has warned China not to help Russia evade penalties if a Ukraine invasion happens.
U.S. diplomatic solutions to the crisis which do not include barring Ukraine from future NATO membership, seemed to have gone no where to the point the contents of the negotiations were leaked to European papers.
American promised to discuss more transparency with Russia on troop deployments in Europe, non ballistic nuclear arms agreements, and a series of moves to allay Putins claim that Russia feels threatened somehow. But Russia has refused to deescalate.
Where are we heading? I believe at the very least Russia is preparing to occupy or annex Eastern Ukraine areas known in Donbas and Luhansk. It may try to grab at the Black Sea shore line and create a land bridge to Crimea which it annexed in 2014.
But once conflict begins, it’s difficult to put the brakes on where it may go as Ukrainians are prepared to fight any Russian troops which can invade by sea, from the Crimea, along the Eastern front and from Belarus in the north.
Deescalation is being attempted by Turkey, and France, and Germany, so far to no avail. Putin fundamentally believes Ukraine is his to control, and his larger targets may include the Baltic NATO countries. And NATO and Europe promise to be unified in stopping him.
Other News…
-a December 2020 memo suggested Trump use the National Security Agency to look through foreign emails and phone records to show that foreign powers had intervened in the election — thus providing a supposed basis for throwing out the result
-President Biden announced that the leader of ISIS, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, had died in Syria during an operation carried out by about two dozen American commandos days after ISIS had tried to free 3000 prisoners at a prison
-Overnight 4 aides of P.M. Boris Johnson quit and British Media are reporting he has lost control of 10 Downing St and a vote of no confidence is certain
On Back Story w/Dana Lewis Podcast
The case of Boris Johnson and his parties at 10 Downing St., while the rest of the country was in lockdown and gatherings were against the law.
14 parties are now the subject of a police investigation, and British politicians and journalists say theres never been a Prime Minister like this. The calls to resign are headline news and the scandal won't go away.
Host Dana Lewis interviews journalists Edward Lucas, and Martin Stanford.
Check out the podcast here;
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1016881/10004642
And have a good weekend everyone.
Dana
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/us/politics/russia-ukraine-invasion-pretext.html
https://english.pravda.ru