Good morning,
Ukraine Raid
If you had told me a few years ago I would be writing that Russian Nationalists would be launching military raids on Russia’s border towns and trying to provoke an uprising against the Kremlin, I would say you were nuts, yet here we are.
For two days this week several dozen, it’s not exactly clear how many there were, self described Russian’s fighting for Ukraine, attacked Russian border areas near Belgorod.
The Russian Defence Ministry said Tuesday that the attackers, who are members of two groups calling themselves the Free Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps, had been pushed back across the border into Ukraine.
The groups include white nationalists and neo nazis, which may help feed Putin’s narrative that his attack on Ukraine was against nazi’s, and it further helps the Kremlin say the war in Ukraine is one to defend Russia.
If you read this newsletter it should be for analysis, not just another re-hash of headlines, so here is my take.
I spoke to the Ilya Ponomarev, who is the ‘political rep’ for the Free Russia Legion, and he said some key things to me from his office in Kyiv.
-the group is part of the Ukrainian military, because the soldiers while Russian nationals, also serve in the Ukraine army
-Ukraine approved the operation to divert attention away from it’s coming counter offensive, and to distract Russia’s military
-Yes there were various Canadian and American vehicles, used such as Humvees, but no heavy armour and it was NOT he said supplied by the U.S. directly
-This is just the beginning of a series of operations against Russia by these soldiers including possible attack as far away as Moscow
-The group claims it has 5 battalions, which is typically 300 to 1000 soldiers each. Ponomarev would not say how big the battalions are exactly but they armed by the Ukrainians with light arms and some arms they captured after the Kherson offensive
Analysis - the groups want as much press as possible as they seek financial and military support. They are not going to change the battle field right now, but if they grow they could distract Russian forces away from the Ukraine front.
This cross border attack was a propaganda mission, and it was highly successful, and embarrassing for the Kremlin.
Moscow’s mercenary Wagner boss Yevgeny Prighozin reacted to the raid saying Russia needs to order a new wave of military mobilization, declare martial law and force “everyone possible” into ammunition production.
And this warning from Prighozin - “Society always demands justice,” he said, “and if there is no justice, then revolutionary sentiments arise.”
I will have my interview with Ponomarev this week on Back Story with Dana Lewis podcast. Check it out tomorrow.
Other News…
-Florida Gov Ron DeSantis has officially entered the race for U.S. President against Donald Trump. The Rep Party which must choose between aligning once more behind Mr. Trump — who lost in 2020 and continues to claim a stolen election — or uniting around someone else to take on President Biden
-U.S. default is looming as Republicans and Democrats continue their negotiations to cut spending. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday maintained early June as a debt ceiling default deadline and said she will update Congress shortly about government finances. Some private forecasters, including Goldman Sachs and Moody's Analytics, have estimated that a default could come a few days after June 1, between June 6 and June 9
Have a good day everyone.
Dana