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Good morning,
Ukraine’s Long War
There is often positive spin by think tanks and war experts on how the Ukrainians are boldly fighting back the Russian advance in Ukraine. Bold and courageous goes the battle but there are also some realities of a Russian advance.
The Russian Defense Ministry said Tuesday that its forces in eastern Ukraine had advanced to the border between Donetsk and Luhansk, which means the Russians appear to be taking a major eastern portion of Ukraine.
At the beginning of the war Russia held only 1/3 of the Donbas. This may indicate Russian forces could be filling in the other 2/3rds creating a huge break away area of Ukraine.
That doesn’t mean Russia can hold it, or that Ukrainian forces won’t fight to take part of it back, but it is an advance. The Russians are also hitting Odesa with missiles indicating that city will come under increasing attack as Putin’s invasion will target and attempt to seize the entire Black Sea coast of Ukraine.
Russia is also attempting to bolster its forces on the Zmiinyi (Snake) island which the British Min. of Defense warns would give it strategic control of the north western Black Sea.
On the other side of the coin, Ukraine has been successful in pushing back Russian advances around Kharkiv and overnight there were reports Ukraine was holding ground back to Russia’s border there.
We are in the fog of war, so as its been said many times its impossible to give you a solid 100% read on the battle field. But as I have also predicted, Russian leader Putin won’t easily stop unless his forces collapse in Ukraine. Putin doesn’t care about troop losses and will keep driving forward, unless of course there are no troops to advance with.
Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee in Washington on Tuesday, Avril D. Haines, the director of U.S. National Intelligence, warned of a long conflict in Ukraine and that we are entering a more dangerous phase where soon Putin could quite likely threaten to use nuclear weapons. ***Notable***
Many medical experts that have commented on Putins appearance this week, during the Red Square Victory Day parade, suggest he may be dying. He appears puffy, awkward at times in movement, and appears to be battling some kind of cancer.
Putin may be playing for a legacy in seizing Ukraine and re-establishes Russian dominance over its neighbours, and his thinking about history and Russia’s future appears to be anything but clear headed.
He has plunged Russia back decades economically, and Russian’s I know have fled the country, refusing to return. Many only see darkness in Putin’s recent actions, and are emotionally distraught over a dim future under Putin’s insane attempts to expand Russia beyond its current borders at the cost of everything.
This is not seen by an attempt to rescue Slavs anywhere despite Putin’s slogans and Kremlin propaganda. Putin spent too much time reading history over the pandemic and thinks he is a modern day Catherine the Great, or reining Tsar over a Russian Empire. Add it up and it’s still delusional and a threat to Europe.
So instead of pushing back NATO from his borders, Putins war has now brought tens of thousands of NATO reinforcements to nations pleading for military muscle in fear of a Russian invasion.
And this week we will see Finland and Sweden join NATO, and its only because of Putins war.
The official path towards membership will begin with an announcement by Sauli Niinisto, the president of Finland, expected on Thursday. Sweden will follow within days. A joint expression of intent to join Nato is expected early next week.
Finlands former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb writes in the FT today
“the unfortunate reality is that Europe will be divided for the foreseeable future. On one side of the new iron curtain is an aggressive, revisionist and authoritarian Russia. The only thing Putin understands is power. Show any weakness and he will attack”.
Stubb’s concludes his editorial by stating;
“Security is not a zero-sum game. I hope that the Russian regime will one day understand this, too. This will allow us to re-establish good relations with Russia. In the meantime, we will help to maximise security in Europe by joining Nato. It is not against anyone, but for us. All of us”.
https://www.ft.com/content/e85825af-5172-44c4-9662-f7ceca40e8ac?sharetype=blocked
By any measure, Putin’s war will be long and bloody in Ukraine. He won’t sensibly relent it seems, no matter what the price to be paid by Russians. So the only alternative is to isolate Russia and contain Putin and understand the dangers of not doing so.
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Dana Lewis