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Good Morning,
Russia’s Putin
It is Sunday morning and I trying to stretch my sleepy brain to give you some answers but must admit I am full of questions today. And maybe I should just come clean and admit I don’t have answers to them.
Many of us watched Russian President Putin’s speech on Friday announcing the formal annexation of four areas in eastern Ukraine and the bused in celebration on Red Square. There was nothing spontaneous about the flag waving and it was choreographed for Russian audiences.
What amazed me was listening to his entire rambling speech, in front of stone faced Parliamentarians and guests, as he reeled on from the delusional notion Russia has been mistreated and squeezed by American hegemony, and how he won’t stand for it anymore.
In Putin’s world, Russia is a victim defending itself from forced western enslavement and encirclement fighting a defensive war. He rambles on about Russophobic tendencies and suggests we hate Russia.
According to Russia’s leader the U.S. rules the world by the power of the fist. Any country which seeks to challenge Western hegemony becomes an enemy. Their neocolonialism is cloaked in lies like "containment" of Russia, China and Iran. The concept of truth has been destroyed with fakes and extreme.
And then he takes a hard right turn into liberal values he obviously hates, including acceptance of mixed gay marriages and gender. “They have abandoned religion and embraced Satanism”.
Anyway you get the idea. He is lambasting everything western, and the so called world order, and to some degree its a declaration of war against the west.
So my first question is - are we now in WW3 or at least at its beginning? And are we failing to respond adequately, believing we can fight a proxy struggle with Russia in the fields of eastern Ukraine without gearing up for a broader conflict?
A military friend tells me, while America is outspending the next 11 countries combined on its staggering $813 billion proposed budget (a 4% increase) but in reality the U.S. doesn’t have the ability to replace arms after the first opening battles of high intensity conflict.
My second but perhaps chief question is - will Russia, as its army collapsing in eastern Ukraine, use a nuclear weapon and what happens the next terrifying moment?
We are in a very dangerous moment, where Putin is parading on Red Square chanting victory, while his forces in Lyman were being mauled by advancing Ukrainian soldiers, and being forced to retreat.
This within 24 hours of Putins declaration the people of occupied Ukraine are “becoming our citizens forever.”
Soon Ukraine will take back more territory armed with western weapons, including positioning to attack Crimea itself, that Russian illegally annexed back in 2014.
Putin has said he will defend these new territories by all means. There are open calls by Russian politicians to detonate a tactical nuclear weapon on Ukrainian forces, or even bizarrely on a western nation like Poland.
There are few detailed answers on what America or NATO would do in response. There are discussions of non nuclear conventional weapon responses, which I think may not be intimidating Putin’s extreme inner circle.
But within minutes of a NATO/American conventional attack on Russian military assets, we would also be poking a nuclear trip wire that can escalate within minutes into the unthinkable.
So I also question - is Washington handling the nuclear threat as seriously and as strategically with Russia as it should? There is no clear answer because the “detailed warnings” we are told have been spelled out to Russia in recent days are not open source information.
And I question - whether Putin can command his forces to launch a nuclear attack, given the open criticism now being displayed in Russian media. Would his Generals follow orders?
On one program last night a Russian commentator openly questioned why there were celebrations on Red Square as Russian soldiers were fighting and retreating from Lyman? A former military commander (who was cut off in mid-broadcast), said there is lying on whats really happening on the battle field from “the bottom to the top”.
Putin’s credibility even within Russia is suffering, and there is a realization not only are battles being fight and lost in Ukraine, but this is not a special military operation but a full war, launched by Russia without a need, and clearly without the promise of victory.
Is Putin going to be Russia’s leader in a few months, as his war machine crumbles, and Kremlin insiders look for the ultimate scape-goat? The only way to stop the war, end the sanctions, and put a stop to this madness appears to be the possible replacement of Putin.
But how?
Have a good Sunday everyone.
Dana Lewis