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Good morning,

Ukraine Crisis

As we speak the crisis has been entering an unprecedented chapter with frenzied arms deliveries to Ukraine and more and more Russian troops and armour, arriving in Belarus and along the Russia-Ukraine border poised for invasion.

Russia officially denies its planning to invade Ukraine, but the troop build up says otherwise, including military exercises in Belarus on Ukraines North, and large naval exercises in the Black Sea.

Ukraine is not a NATO country, and Russia wants to keep it that way, but NATO nations are individually rushing extra arms to Ukraine to help it defend against attack.

That included U.S. aircraft this weekend ferrying arms which may have included anti aircraft Stinger missiles. The Baltics and Poland sent artillery and ammunition and small arms. Britain has sent in anti tank weapons, as has America.

Tensions and difference in NATO emerged with Germany refusing to allow NATO ally Estonia to transfer artillery this weekend, that it has supplied to Estonia with strict agreement.

Germany has made NATO allies including Britain fly around German airspace when delivering airlifts of weapons.

Saturday the head of the Germany’s Navy was forced to resign after controversial pro Putin statements he made in India were broadcast.

Navy chief Kay-Achim Schönbach had said Putin probably wants respect and deserves respect, and that on the Crimea annexed by Russia in 2014, "the Crimea Peninsula is gone: It will never come back — this is a fact."  NATO allies support Ukraines demand the Crimea was illegally invades and annexed and must be returned.

Officially the U.S. and Russia will hold another meeting this coming week and diplomacy is continuing aimed at diffusing the crisis, but it appears behind the scenes the situation is rapidly unravelling.

Russia wants to essentially redesign European security and roll back NATO memberships for countries including Bulgaria and Romania.

And now Britain unusually released a statement claiming Russia was plotting to install a pro Russian Government in Ukraine. The Foreign Office named former Ukrainian MP Yevhen Murayev as a potential Kremlin candidate.

In a statement, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: "The information being released today shines a light on the extent of Russian activity designed to subvert Ukraine, and is an insight into Kremlin thinking.

"Russia must de-escalate, end its campaigns of aggression and disinformation, and pursue a path of diplomacy.

Russia has called the plot, fake and accused Britain of disinformation.

Remember the current conflict with Russia over Ukraine dates back to the Maidan revolution of 2013-2014 when thousands of Ukrainians in Kiev protested the pro Russian President of Yanukovych, who under Kremlin pressure refused to implement and sign a political association and free trade agreement with the European Union.

Yanukovych violently attempted to put down demonstrations with police using live ammunition and at least 48 people were killed. Yanukovych was forced to flee Ukraine to Russia in the aftermath.

Russian President Putin then ordered the seizure of the Crimea, home to the Russian Black Sea Naval base, leased from Ukraine, an arrangement which likely would have cancelled by the new European leaning Ukrainian Government.

And since 2014 Putin has waged a proxy war strengthening pro Russia rebels in Eastern Ukraine with mounting Ukrainian casualties, with at least 14,000 dead.

Russia has pushed hard for Eastern Ukraines Donbas area to have Federal status, which would give them a veto over future EU membership, and any membership in NATO. Thus the stalemate over the so called ceasefire agreements known as the Minsk arrangements. Ukraine doesn’t accept rebel areas would have a veto over its future with Europe.

So why is Putin planning to invade now if indeed thats his plan? The reasons are not only to stop NATO membership which may be years away, and put Ukraine back under the Kremlins control, instead of watching as Ukraine moves closer and closer to EU membership.

Putin may want to take more of the Donbas creating a larger buffer zone in Eastern Ukraine as well as creating a land bridge to the Crimea which is largely isolated and hard to resupply with fresh water.

He may also have larger designs on taking all of Ukraines ports on the Black Sea to cutoff the country and make it into a failed state, but that would require seizing Odessa and Mariupol. Odessa has oil and chemical processing facilities that link to Europe, and is considered a major railway transportation hub.

Any Russian incursion needs supplies, and the railways are key to move equipment and fuel. Especially after February when the ground thaws and Russian mechanized units would be hung up in mud trying to cross Ukraine. As I have written before, a Russian invasion will likely trace east-west railway lines and must take place over the next month.

Few people believe Russia will attempt a full invasion of Ukraine, but focus largely in Eastern centres and possibly isolate Kiev. The death toll from fighting would be thousands and that includes large Russian losses.

Russian would find itself teetering on economic collapse as its banks come under immediate financial sanction and are unable to carry out transactions in dollars. It’s a death sentence for a bank. And, Russian companies, even those listed on foreign exchanges would be unable to trade as Russian central banks which hold securities are isolated.

Putin whose popularity soared after taking the Crimea, would most probably harvest an initial boost to his reputation with Russian nationalists if he orders war, but very quickly find himself the author of Russia’s economic near collapse, and face angry Russians unable to afford or even access western goods.

Putin banks on staying popular as he thirsts for one last term as President, and that vote is looming in 2024. Since the poisoning and arrest of opposition leader Alexey Navalny, he has jailed his remaining political opposition and dismantled human rights groups.

But sanctions would hammer the financial interests of Putin’s kleptocracy, including some 400 Oligarchs would find themselves unable to travel or access their riches on the French Riviera or in London and New York. Putin himself, through proxies is said to bank vast wealth in foreign banks and have large land holdings including in the South of France.

This looming invasion would be an extreme risk for Putin and Russia. And a horrible tragedy for Ukrainians, who gave up nuclear weapons after the fall of the Soviet Union in exchange for promises of independence and sovereignty. They are now broken Imperialist Russian pledges.

One can only hope the appearances of a looming invasion by Russia is a bluff, but the sheer scale of troop movements make that hard to accept, and Ukraine and the rest of Europe is bracing for the worst.