Back Story Newsletter
Good Morning,
Ukraine-Russia
Just a quick word today on developments playing out this Wednesday.
Ukrainian President Zelensky is on his way to Washington. He has rarely left Kyiv since the Russians invaded in February, and this is his first trip outside Ukraine since the attack began.
But this is a key series of meetings to shore up American support for Ukraine’s desperate fight for survival, against Putin’s illegal invasion which continues to target civilian areas and infrastructure.
Zelensky will meet President Biden at the White House and address Congress appealing or more military help.
The U.S. is expected to announce today Ukraine will receive the sophisticated Patriot Air Defence system. And who would question the decision to allow millions of Ukrainians some umbrella of protection from relentless missile and drone strikes on cities?
Deliveries of new U.S. weapons to Ukraine will lead “to an aggravation of the conflict” and do “not bode well for Ukraine,” Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, told reporters on Wednesday.
But the escalation was Russia’s attacks on civilian targets, and Ukraine has a right to defend itself. What else will the U.S. provide to Ukraine in the coming months?
President Putin will also make a speech today at a Defence Ministry meeting. It is expected to be lengthy says the Kremlin, so we can expect more tirades against the West, and falsehoods a plenty about how Russia is defending the Motherland.
But Russia could end this tomorrow if it withdrew its forces. No one attacked Russia. No country planned to attack Russia. NATO did not pose a threat to Russia except in terms of an independent Ukraine able to defend itself in the future, although NATO membership was years away if ever to occur.
But Putin can’t stop this war now it appears, because his failure will be seen as his weakness and folly at launching an invasion he thought would give him control of Kyiv in a matter of days. And this war may well spell an end to his Kremlin rule, if not the stability of Russia.
In discussions this week with people who have relatives living in the Caucuses I hear because of the disproportionate draft of men into the army, and the deaths of many of them, unrest is a ticking time bomb in Russia. Could this be the beginning of a fracture of Russia rule and Putin’s ability to keep the country together?
The Ukraine invasion has sharply eroded Moscow’s influence in Central Asia too, by inflaming regional fears of Russian aggression and thirst for a restoration of dominance, while exposing the Kremlin’s military weaknesses. China and Turkey will work to expand their influence in the region.
Putin and Russia have much to lose in Ukraine and so resolving the conflict becomes more difficult, not less as time passes.
Ukrainian officials have said Russia is preparing a new offensive in Ukraine, and possibly a renewed attack on Kyiv. That would involve as many as half the newly conscripted soldiers, about 150 thousand men and cooperation from Russia ally Belarus.
When the attack might happen? Many think it’s more likely in the first part of next year but it seems certain to occur, pitting low tech armed Russian troops against well dug in and motivated Ukrainian forces.
Zelensky’s visit to Washington is critical in terms of timing and messaging, as there is growing fatigue in some U.S. political circles at the length and cost of this war.
But if you measure the cost of containing an out of box fanatical Russian regime, the Ukraine assistance provided is about as cheap as Western powers could imagine in a war that shows how corrupt and ineffective Russia leadership is in leading an invasion destined to fail.
Have a good day everyone.
Dana Lewis