Back Story Newsletter

Good morning from London,

Ukraine

Don’t lose perspective on why the war in Ukraine matters to Europe and The West.

A loss of Ukraine to Russia will change the map of Europe, and have long term consequences for Russian leader Putin’s aims to retake countries that declared independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

A victory in Ukraine will contain Putin’s Imperial goals, and expose the Russian army largely feared at the beginning of this conflict, for what it is; a shambolic collection of units that are unmotivated lacking morale and leadership and destined to be defeated in the mud and the blood.

According to U.S. estimates we are in a critical month, where the outcome of the conflict though long and grinding, will largely be decided. So with that President Biden is committing another 800 million in arms as U.S. Generals hold a flurry of talks with European leaders to discuss more arms.

Much of the arms include heavy weaponry including howitzers and more anti tank Javelins, and some of the weapons are secret to give Ukrainians an edge against Russia ground attacks.

If Putin sees defeat in the Donbas of eastern Ukraine, he may resort to a full mobilization of his country but the political risks for the Russian leader are huge and the economic consequences for sanctioned Russia are dire.

Putin has possibly over stepped in launching this war, and if it ushers in defeat will not only place him historically in a dark place as a war criminal, but I believe he will be finished as Russian President. Defeat instead of victory for Putin will reveal a weakness in the Kremlin, that in Russia will leave him fatally exposed as a frail and vulnerable leader.

Putin’s 21 years in office have taken Russia largely no where. Attempts to diversify the economy have failed, while the Kremlin’s inner circle has stuffed it pockets getting rich while the rest of the country floundered.

Now Putins only currency, which has been the illusion of strength, appears to be almost spent in Ukraine. So Putin appears to have prematurely declared victory in Mariupol. He needs a victory because in 2 months of fighting Russian forces while destroying civilian buildings and displacing millions not much has been gained.

Ukrainian forces remain dug in at the Mariupol steel factory, although the situation there is dire with fighters. running short on food and ammunition, and civilians with them trapped under ground in collapsed buildings. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy claims Mariupol has not fallen.

More than 40 villages in the Donbas are now under control by Russian forces, but Russian forces have so far failed to break through Ukrainian front lines.

If Mariupol is taken, the Russians will be able to advance from the south and threaten Ukrainian forces with encirclement. There are concerns Russian troops will again attack Kyiv but not before the Donbas fight is done.

As Russian forces extend into the Donbas their supply lines will be stretched, and they may suffer the similar fate badly that mauled soldiers suffered in attacking Kyiv from the north. The next month will show if the Russians learned or are likely to suffer defeat with large troop losses, already estimated to be as many as 20 thousand KIA.

Putins ultimate goal, by declaring Ukraine is not a real country in his view, is the entire occupation of Ukraine including the western part of the country. That hasn’t changed.

Western leaders are doing everything they can to pave the road to defeat for Putins Russia and so far, they are united in that cause.

Have a good day everyone. I will begin to write about other news as I feel its critical. But Ukraine I think deserves our attention.

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Dana Lewis