Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
Russia/Ukraine
Everywhere you look today you can see signs of escalation and a war that is gaining, not losing speed.
Russia is increasing its rhetoric against the west, with President Putin saying that “if someone intends to intervene in the ongoing events from the outside and create strategic threats for Russia that are unacceptable to us, they should know that our retaliatory strikes will be lightning-fast”.
That’s Putin again using the nuclear threat, which while frightening to some, may also be a sign of weakness because Russia fears losing ground in Ukraine and has deep concerns NATO countries are increasingly being drawn into the fight.
How is NATO being drawn in? As Russia pushes harder into eastern Ukraine, NATO countries are more and more willing to supply bigger weapons systems to Ukraines army, fearing a win in Ukraine, will embolden Putin to push even further into other countries. It’s a game now of deter and contain Putin’s ambitions to restore some kind of Imperial Russia.
On the ground Russian forces in the eastern part of Ukraine, are said to be making advances. They do it big bombarding Ukrainian positions with rocket and artillery fire. But as they then move forces forward to occupy those areas Ukrainian forces can counter strike and retake villages and areas initially given up.
To stop Russian advances, NATO and the U.S. in particular are rushing in big artillery packages aka 155mm mobile and towed artillery that can hit back at Russian firing positions but it will take some weeks to get that far enough forward in this new phase of war.
Notable overnight were Russian 2 missile strikes on Kyiv interpreted to essentially be a middle finger to UN Chief Antonio Guterres who was visiting the Ukrainian capital. The missile strikes took place Thursday evening, after Guterres visited the site of massacres and mass graves on the city’s outskirts, and met Ukraine’s president Zelenskiy.
Today Ukrainian officials say they are mounting an operation, to evacuate civilians trapped in the Mariupol steel factory said to be without food and increasingly desperate. There are several hundred people living below ground. Let’s see if the evacuations happen, because many of these so called safe corridors turn into shooting alleys for Russian soldiers.
And many of the citizens are of special interest to Russian forces because they may be related to the Azov battalion which has resisted Russian occupation of Mariupol for more than 2 months.
So if this seems like more of the same, it is to some degree because it shows a kind of stalemate in some areas. But it’s also a new phase of war with heavy battles being fought in Ukraine.
And, I fear the war is becoming more dangerous as Russian TV programs which peddle Kremlin propaganda discuss “WW3 already under way” and one well known commentator this week, Margarita Simonyan who is known to be extreme but close to Putin, made some shocking statements this week.
Simonyan said it was “more probable” that President Putin would launch a nuclear strike than allow Russia to lose the war.
Simonyan said: “Either we lose in Ukraine or the Third World War starts. I think Wold war 3 is more realistic, knowing us, knowing our leader.
“The most incredible outcome, that all this will end with a nuclear strike, seems more probable to me than the other course of events.
“This is to my horror on one hand,” she told a panel of experts, “but on the other hand, it is what it is. We will go to heaven, while they will simply croak... We're all going to die someday.”
It is in this hysterical atmosphere Russians are largely supporting Putins insane attack on Ukraine, willingly swallowing propaganda that Ukraine was somehow a danger to Russia, and their leader is defending Russian interests.
There’s another way to process all this of course. A good friend who has met with Putin often over the years says Putin has simply gone nuts. And that he has no plan, except to keep expanding the conflict unless he is stopped from doing so and that includes invading other European countries.
The Americans assess Putin the same way. Thus President Biden has asked Congress to pass a proposed $33 billion Ukraine aid package, including more than $20 billion in military aid and other security assistance.
Does this war serve American interests? Clearly the U.S. will benefit from arms production and sales, and use of Ukraine to weaken Russia. But does that mean America’s involvement should be seen in a cynical framework? I don’t think so.
This is about freedom vs autocracy, good vs evil and Putin doesn’t care about the lives of children or moms and dads or grandmothers and grand fathers, as he destroys cities and kills innocents.
But I do take Putins threats of nuclear weapons seriously, and am beginning to think the odds are growing the Russians will use a tactical nuclear strike to serve their strategic expansionists ambitions in Ukraine.
That will place NATO leaders in one of the most difficult decision making moments in our common history. And those who know the nuclear doctrine of the U.S., and France, and UK, and Russia say a limited nuclear exchange inevitably leads to full mutually assured destruction, which is why it’s called MAD.
Lets hope and pray if Putin is losing touch with reality, and is flirting with mad, there are still those around him who can step in and stop suicidal escalation.
If all of this seems far fetched to you, think again, because I believe thats where we are.
Meantime, on Back Story podcast this week what really happened to the Russian Warship Moskva? I have an excellent and rare interview with Ret British Navy Rear Admiral John Gower who says the ship was likely hit by missiles.
And we discuss on Back Story the aftershocks of food shortages caused by the war in Ukraine.
Check it out;
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1016881/10513752
Or you can watch the video version here;
Have a good weekend!
Dana Lewis