Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
Ukraine And Putin’s War
The war in Ukraine is in a critical few weeks, where some analysts say Russia’s army may be close to collapse, and decisions by Russian President Putin are narrowing.
No doubt tomorrow he will declare some kind of victory in “de-nazification” in Ukraine, even though by most measure the Russian army has suffered terrible losses and is bogged down in most places.
Destruction is certainly something the Russian army has been good at as it has used bombing, artillery and rocket attacks to devastate infrastructure of towns and cities.
Overnight two people have been killed in the Russian bombing of a school in the Ukrainian village of Bilohorivka and the 60 who remain under the debris are feared dead, the governor of the Luhansk region, said.
Six Russian cruise missiles fired from aircraft hit Odesa, where a curfew is in place until Tuesday morning. Local reports say four of the missiles hit a furniture company, with the shock waves and debris badly damaging high-rise apartment buildings. The other two missiles hit the airport.
The Ukrainian army is said to be on the offensive around Kharkiv pushing back Russian artillery that has been so badly damaging the city.
The Ukrainian army says it destroyed a Russian landing craft near Snake island.
Today there is a lot to watch as U.S. President Biden holds a video conference with other G7 leaders and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy on the state of the war and western help.
And the EU will also meet in Brussels today to discuss their sixth round of economic sanctions against Moscow, which this time should include a phased ban on imports of Russian oil.
Russia has stepped up cruise missile attacks and air sorties and shows no signs of backing down in Ukraine.
Despite some rosy analysis on Ukrainian fighting abilities, I don’t see President Putin announcing anything positive in at the May 9th gathering in Moscow tomorrow. He will justify his attack on Ukraine with historical references to WW2 and Russian victories over the nazi’s.
Today Russia labels anyone who opposes Russian expansionism as an attack on Slavs and claims all of Europe as nazis along with the U.S.
We will all be listening tomorrow for some kind of decision by Putin to expand his attack on Ukraine, but he may not announce a general mobilization as many have speculated.
I think Putin has uncertain achievable goals in Ukraine, so he will press on with the fight and not be clear on his long term strategy or final concrete goals.
This Russian leader has shown in Chechnya he can carry on a war of attrition for years, if it suites his purposes. So the west has to press sanctions and make Russia feel the effects of sanctions or face a long conflict which will destroy more of Ukraine.
And more than anything, this Kremlin crowd of Putin’s, has little ideology except that of holding onto power at all costs. Putin can’t walk away from the Ukraine war now because it will leave him exposed in Russia.
The one surprise that could be in the offing may be internal pressures around Putin that could weaken his regime. The fact Putin has cost his inner circle billions, and this is a kleptocracy that won’t be comfortable losing yachts and villas in Europe, and billions in foreign bank accounts could pave the way for a dramatic shift in power in Russia, but when and how that could happen is an unknown.
Putin and his Security Chief Nikolai Patrushev believe they can command loyalty, but that support has always come with an unwritten contract of fulfilling the greed of the ‘siloviki’ or strong men.
The contract is broken and the war is being lost and waged with diminishing returns, and Putin is vulnerable.
I will write more this week after Putin’s Red Square performance on May 9th.
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Dana Lewis