Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
Russia and Ukraine
I have reported from and on Russia for 20 years or more, and even I found the guests on Back Story podcast this week extremely enlightening, because it’s a multi layered complex dispute with Ukraine driving the new threat of war in Europe.
But it all boils down to a simple fact - Ukrainians believe since the fall of the Soviet Union 30 years ago, and their declaration of independence, that they became an independent country, no longer under the Kremlins shadow. Ukrainians have fought Russian interference in their politics for decades.
In 2004 I covered the Orange Revolution which saw Russian President Putin at first openly campaign for a pro Russian candidate in Ukraines election Viktor Yanukovych. And when Yanukovych lost to a pro European candidate, Russia cried foul and blamed the West for interference.
Young Ukrainians set up tent camps in Kiev, and demanded Yanukovych admit defeat, and the new President Yushchenko take his seat as elected President. It appeared Ukraine was on the verge of civil war and violence, but in the end Yushchenko won after the Supreme Court over turned the election result because of massive voter fraud.
Yushchenko would win the runoff even though he was poisoned and disfigured. In my interview with Yushchenko later, he told me whatever it was, it had been put in his tea during an interview with pro Russian intelligence officials.
Again, in 2010 Ukraines elections were marred by allegations of voter fraud, but this time in a run-off Yanukovych would narrowly win, promising to improve ties with Russia. But he would later turn away from signing a free trade agreement with the European Union sealing his fate with voters. Remember Russia supported Yanukovych because it wanted him to keep Ukraine from improving ties with Europe.
The protests that erupted in Kiev, were dubbed the Euromaidan and resulted in 130 deaths and eventually Yanukovych fled to Russia. But the struggle for a Western leaning Ukraine vs a Russian controlled Ukraine was only about to intensify.
Russian troops seized and illegally annexed the Crimea and then supported and encouraged an uprising in Eastern Ukraine in an area known as the Donbas.
The ceasefire agreement’s called the Minsk Accords, are interpreted very differently in Moscow and in Kiev.
Russia’s President Putin who demands the accords be implemented, does so because it would grant a large amount of autonomy to the Russian speaking region and likely give it a veto over Ukraine’s future plans to join the EU and possibly NATO.
Ukraine sees the accords as a path for more self rule in Eastern Ukraine, but with limits including no Federal veto powers. and and says before the Minsk agreements can be implemented the fighting must stop and Russian forces withdrawn.
Stalemate has not brought Russia what it wanted. Ukraine has if anything grown closer to Europe and resentment against Russia has grown as 14 thousand Ukrainians have died in almost 8 years of fighting.
Ukraine’s desire to join NATO while a distant hope, is still very much alive.
Russia now has amassed 100 thousand troops on Ukraines border threatening further invasion, if there are no guarantees Ukraine will give up attempts to join NATO and its leaders have even outrageously referred to Ukraines as “a vassal state”.
Former Soviet States like Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and even Poland support Ukraine fearing their next on Putin’s bid to reclaim Soviet countries. Many are calling on the U.S. and others to be more resolute in supporting Ukraine with clearer threats of action instead of vague talk of more sanctions if Russia invades further.
Russia is ready to launch military action, that seems clear. Ukraine is also ready to defend its sovereignty and fight superior numbers of Russian forces.
NATO will not intervene, aside from providing arms and advice, but NATO members may well do so. If they do, and Russia attacks them, that is how this could dangerously escalate and pull NATO (under its article 5) into a direct conflict with Russia.
The U.S. and European allies should be clearer with Putin, over what this could cost Russia, and that cost should be so painful to be clear to the Kremlin an escalation in Ukraine is a mistake.
And the sides should return to the table to renegotiate the Minsk agreements which have failed to bring about a real ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine.
We are at a critical moment, with dangerous players, and now is the time to put a stop to an escalation that seems almost inevitable.
Have a listen to Back Story, our podcast on Ukraine and get up to speed!
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1016881/9637680
And have a good weekend everyone.
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Dana