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Good morning,
Ukraine War
Discussion is deepening over actions to break Russia’s blockade in the Black Sea, as the UN declares a world food hunger disaster is looming and Russia is worsening the situation by not allowing merchant ships in and out of Odesa.
Food is about to rot in storage facilities, while some of it has been highjacked by Russia and some of it has been bombed. And Ukraine’s harvest won’t make it out of Ukraine to Africa and beyond because moving wheat, maize and sunflower oil can’t all be done by rail through Poland.
Lithuania has now called for a coalition of the willing to break the blockade and allow merchant shipping to resume.
The Lithuanian foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, proposed the plan during talks with the UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, on Monday in London.
“Time is very very short. We are closing in on a new harvest and there is no other practical way of exporting the grain except through the Black Sea port of Odesa,”
Which countries? NATO cannot said Landsbergis take a role, because that create a shooting war with NATO and Russia and escalate nuclear danger. But countries like Egypt could and even Britain acting outside of NATO.
The UN secretary general, António Guterres, has warned of “a hurricane of hunger” if Ukrainian grain is not exported. The world’s 41 least-developed nations import a roughly 35% of their wheat from Ukraine and Russia.
This past week in a private conversation with an extremely well connected Russian businessman, I heard how talk inside of Russia from Kremlin connected individuals, is that the war in Ukraine could last 2-3 years in their view.
That doesn’t take into account the fact the Russian army, and indeed the Ukrainians, probably can’t last that long in a war this intense. President Zelenskiy said that at least 100 people are dying daily now in the east.
But Putin who seems unhinged, (“mad and crazy” said my Russian friend who knows him), is willing to sacrifice his own people and without remorse Ukrainian civilians to control Ukraine at all costs.
The costs will include people around the world who rely on food from the ‘breadbasket’ of the world, and political instability thats flows from countries inabilities to get grain and for people to afford alarming price increases for it.
Time is ticking, and as the first of Ukraines food harvest will arrive at closed ports in 5-7 weeks. Russia won’t easily allow de-mining of Ukraines coast, or permit safe passage of commercial ships unless it’s pressured to do do it.
Some say Russia might allow food to move, if it can also access markets for sale of its own crops and fertilizers. But it’s a long shot.
In order to allow a coalition to guard merchant ships out of Odesa, NATO member Turkey would have to be onboard to open the entrance to the Black Sea which is controls. Turkey is so far unlikely to do that if it means confronting Russia.
The alternative some say, is to ship long range anti shipping missiles to countries including Ukraine, to force Russia to give up its strangle hold on Ukraines coast. And some of that is already occurring. Ukraine has its own anti shipping missiles, like those used to sink the Russian warship the Moskva, but those missiles are limited in range.
Putin is weaponizing global food supplies, by targeting farms in Ukraine and by continuing to blockade the Black Sea which by any measure is considering illegal. The UN estimates that 1.7 billion people in over 100 countries are being impacted by the current surge in food, energy and commodity prices.
Russia’s blockade could lead to the starvation of millions of people. In Sri Lanka there have been weeks of violent protests over food prices. In South Sudan reports say sorghum prices are up 45%.
400 million people around the world eat bread that comes from wheat grown in Ukraine. And 80 per cent of the wheat comes out of the Odesa port.
As hunger grows calls to break this Black Sea blockade will become more urgent, and confrontation with Russia seems almost guaranteed.
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Dana Lewis