Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
War In Ukraine
The U.S. has banned energy imports from Russia which will hamper Russia’s abilities to fund its war machine. And dozens of companies have announced withdrawal for Russia including McDonalds, and and Coco-cola.
The McDonalds restaurant on Pushkin Square in Moscow was the first to open after the collapse of the Soviet Union, by McDonalds George Cohon who in 1990 helped usher in capitalism in Russia and called it “burger capitalism”. That’s all gone today and sadly so. Many Russians won’t understand why, and will feel the West is unjustly targeting poor people in Russia.
But the notion of doing business in Russia as its President Putin bombs men, women and children in Ukraine is untenable and pressure on those brands was huge to withdraw.
Last night Poland announced it would hand over 30 Soviet era fighter jets to the U.S. to then get them somehow to Ukrainian pilots to defend the skies above Ukraine.
The idea is while a no-fly zone is too risky, the fighter jets could be used to stop Russia from bombing cities. But Last night the U.S. said no. Pentagon spokesman, John F. Kirby, said in a statement, the prospect of fighter jets departing from a U.S.-NATO base in Germany and flying into “airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance.”
Meantime at least 9 senior Russian officers have been killed in the last 2 weeks of invasion, including a Major General of the army. Leaked FSB (Federal Security Service) phone calls indicate a complete communication break down in Russian forward services including encrypted systems.
The Generals had gone forward to communicate to their troops the urgency to move forward, and to personally supervise failed assaults on Cities.
The invasion has not gone well is an understatement as Russian troops casualty numbers are estimated to be between 4000 and 11,000 depending on who your’e listening to.
Hundreds of vehicles have broken down, been destroyed or are abandoned.
Russia is still strangling the city of Mariupol in the south. And navy amphibious landing ships could head for Odessa.
In the north Kyiv is partially surrounded and there are predictions of a renewed assault within days.
Kharkiv is also under constant shelling and Russian attacks continue but so far have been repelled.
End game - there are different negotiations with the Russian’s which hopeful Western watchers think will bring a settlement, but the view is so far naive, because the demands of Putin remain basically unworkable politically for President Zelensky.
Ukraine will not agree to giver up the Crimea annexed in 2014, or surrender the Donbas, nor will it demilitarize now and declare a neutral status. If you think Ukraine will give up its weapons now after it has stopped the Russian advance, your’e not understanding the loss and anger of Ukraine and the determination to fight on.
Putin is isolated in Russia, and while no one seems to speak truth to power and tell him he’s fighting a war that can’t be won. Even if he can take another few cities he doesn’t have anywhere near the numbers of soldiers on the ground to hold them. And he hasn’t even attempted yet to move into Western Ukraine where an insurgency would flourish.
But the numbers of refugees is growing. The desperation of isolated cities without water and power and food in some cases grows by the day.
And frankly, Putin is backed into a corner. If he withdraws he has authored a defeat no matter how he tries to paint the disinformation. It’s a stain on the Kremlin he can’t endure. So whats his plan to rescue his war plan? Knowing Putin the way I do, I think he won’t stop. It’s my feeling he is more dangerous and unpredictable and I have a sense he is planning something we will soon experience.
He may resort to massive cyber attacks on the West soon and has already described sanctions as a declaration of war. He has a nuclear arsenal that includes smaller tactical nuclear weapons and might consider the unthinkable deployment of one. He is still threatening countries helping Ukraine.
Putin launched this war in a tight circle of Kremlin supporters, and he lives in that dangerous paranoid mirage that his war is just and must be won. So no end is in sight to the invasion of Ukraine.
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Dana