Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
Stalled War In Ukraine
A ‘stalled’ advance of the Russian army, plagued by supply disruptions and bad morale and failed war planning, is not success for Ukraine. Some of the most bloody battles of WW1 were along stalled front lines like the Battle of The Somme.
The Russian army can’t easily take cities so it lays siege to them, and against all rules of conflict destroys them with artillery and bombing, having no regard for people trapped inside.
Mariupol is the worst example of this, as this city of 450 thousand has been shelled for 2 weeks now. Most of the resident did not get out, and remain trapped in rubble. Up to 90 per cent of the city has been destroyed by the Russian army, with cruel scorched earth attacks on residential areas.
The Mariupol residents refused to meet a 5am deadline this morning to give up and surrender the city. Russia has struck several civilian shelters, schools, a hospital and a theatre. Ukraine has said the Mariupol attacks are war crimes that will go down in history.
Mariupol may fall this week. But the idea the Russians then propel forward to places like Odessa seem unlikely as they are barely supplying their existing dug in forces.
In Kyiv Russian shelling hit a residential home and shopping centre killing six people. President Zelenskiy has called for direct talks with President Putin to end the conflict, possibly brokered discussions with Israel in Jerusalem.
What’s Putins Kremlin gang thinking? He may see progress where most of us see defeat of his advance. He is killing Ukrainians while denying to his own people much of the war including the word which is not allowed to be used by State media. Russian TV shows very limited coverage of the “special military operation” and denies any cities have been attacked.
Inside Russia friends tell me they are now seeing the results of sanctions, such a disappearing items in grocery stores like sugar and buckwheat as Russians stock up on essentials fearing long shortages.
Prices have risen at their fastest rate in more than two decades as Russia starts to feel the economic consequences from its invasion of Ukraine, according to data published by the Rosstat statistics agency.
Russia is banning exports of some goods and increasing domestic production of sugar for example and may nationalize some production. It’s beginning to look a lot like the USSR, which was bleak and state management of food production failed.
Russians are told the conflict was started by NATO and the West, and that Russia is defending itself. No one tells them Putin launched the war for his ego and a dream of restoring Russia’s Empire. It’s becoming a nation of zombies controlled by a dictator, now a tyrant and a war criminal, according to European leaders and President Biden.
Putin may think time is on his side as he delays and wreaks devastation. He waged this kind of brutal war in Chechnya and again in Syria. His blunt and disorganized army destroyed centres and slowly won through brutal attrition.
But Ukraine is 44 million people, with the UN now announcing 10 million people have been displaced already.
On Monday, U.S. President Biden is due to hold a call with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and UK PM Boris Johnson.
On Wednesday, he will travel to Brussels to attend a special meeting of Nato and the European Council, as well as a G7 meeting.
Expect more promises of aid and arms to Ukraine, but how to end this war quickly is the goal, and each day that is discussed with no break throughs, more people die or are forced to flee Ukraine.
It’s going to be a critical week for Ukraine.
Please subscribe to this news letter. We welcome paid subscribers who can then comment.
Have a good day everyone.
Dana
(Photo of the Russia Embassy in London last night lit up in colours of Ukraine by protesters)