Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
Ukraine War
In his State of the Union speech last night President Biden again sent a message to President Putin, that U.S. forces now moving to reinforce NATO allies in Eastern Europe will not fight in Ukraine.
And he said a bill would come due for Russian leader Putin’s invasion of a sovereign nation “Throughout our history, we’ve learned this lesson — when dictators do not pay a price for their aggression, they cause more chaos,” Mr. Biden said. “They keep moving. And the costs, the threats to America, and America to the world, keeps rising.”
That’s a real fear. Putin in his rambling speeches last week talked of different maps and historical footprints of Russia, not only questioning the existence of Ukraine, but also the decision to release the Baltic nations from the Soviet collapse. The unthinkable now has to be contemplated as Putin seems unpredictable and capable of anything including using nuclear weapons in Europe.
Let’s take Putin at his word. After first lying and saying there would be no invasion if Ukraine he did just that. But he was somewhat honest about his grievances on NATO expansion demanding it be rolled back to the 90’s. That would endanger the Baltics, the Balkans, and countries on the Black Sea such as Bulgaria and Romania.
The war in Ukraine is an outrageous invasion - and it’s important to use the word the Kremlin has banned in Russian media back home - INVASION - Russians I know ARE disgusted and angry and confused about why Putin started the conflict. In London some of them are talking if ripping up passports and never going back.
In Russia they are not getting much information, and are being told Russia is holding a special military operation to liberate the Donbas and fight Nazi’s. Media which try to report the facts are few, and as of last night two of the last free outlets were taken off air by their Kremlin. Moscow radio and TV Rain have been silenced and may be prosecuted.
The Kremlin fears anger from Russians, who are now lining up at bank machines, and experiencing a collapse of the ruble and disappearing foreign imports. So watch that space because if larger demonstrations erupt, it is the only real pressure point on Putin’s regime. So far Russian authorities have jailed about 7000 Russians who demonstrated against the war in about 50 cities.
The sanctions against Russians are unprecedented and biting every sector of the economy. Putin misjudged the unity of the West, and the support Ukraine would receive.
But let’s not be dreamers. The war is progressing and will bring the slow moving unmotivated and disorganized Russian army success because of its sheer numbers over the smaller Ukrainian forces. As I write this, Russian forces control much of the Black Sea coast and have surrounded cities like Mariupol.
The fighting around Kharkiv is fierce and an indication how this war will be fought. Russia will use targeted strikes, but is also willing to shell and rocket civilian areas like Independence Square in Kharkiv.
The cities including Kyiv are basically cutoff, so resupply of ammunition, not to mention food and medical supplies is becoming more difficult. And time is on Russia’s side.
Yes, Ukrainians are fighting a hell of a fight, but as a reporter who covered Russia’s siege of Chechnya, Putin’s army won’t want to suffer huge losses in street to street fighting. His Generals will order the shelling of Kyiv and others centres on a massive scale. I hope I’m wrong, but we will witness horrifying destruction and civilian losses.
If the Russians are drawn into cities, they will take huge losses which will play badly back in Russia which tries to cover up deaths of soldiers, but slowly that too is revealed through grieving mothers who must bury their sons.
Putin has shown he is dangerous but that danger increases by the day as he’s back into a corner with a military campaign clearly going badly, and his economy left in tatters by sanctions.
At a breakfast in London yesterday with a former U.S. Defense official and a former British Naval Commander in the UK nuclear fleet, talk turned to the question of Putin using nuclear weapons. Both said Putin might do the unthinkable if challenged directly by NATO.
In addition to 1800 ballistic nuclear missiles, Russia holds about 7000 theatre tactical weapons. The blast radius’ are smaller and designed to be used in a conflict in Europe. Given we spent half our breakfast time discussing the possibilities that shows you where we are with Russia. “Happy talk huh” said the official sarcastically as breakfast ended. Indeed it’s a dark moment in Europe when a nuclear exchange is seriously contemplated.
Sorry I can’t write about other news when so much is happening with Ukraine. And if you want more please listen to my latest podcast which features fantastic views on sanctions, a resistance movement in Ukraine if the war is lost, and Putins state of mind.
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1016881/10149966
Have a good day everyone. And keep your sense of humour! We all need it.
Dana