Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
EU Warning
Ukraine could be fast tracked this week on possible EU membership and President Zelenskiy is warning that while Russian leader Putin has publicly said he doesn’t care, in fact Russia will attack Ukraine and Europe over its decision.
“Tomorrow a historic week begins,” Zelenskiy said in a video address on Sunday night, adding: “There have been few such fateful decisions for Ukraine.
And in such a week, we should expect greater hostile activity from Russia. And not only against Ukraine, but also against other European countries. We are preparing. We are ready. We warn partners.”
It’s important to remember Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 after the Maidan revolution, which was sparked over Ukraine’s EU bid. The Moscow backed Ukrainian President had to flee his country.
Putin fears a democratic, European leaning nation on his border, reflecting free will and prosperity, and thats the real reason for his invasion of Ukraine.
The European Union foreign ministers will discuss ways to free millions of tonnes of grain stuck in Ukraine at a meeting in Luxembourg on Monday. It is hoped an agreement can be struck to resume Ukraine’s sea exports in return for facilitating Russian food and fertilizer exports but remains unclear if the EU would get involved in militarily securing such a deal. Turkey may be the monitor to secure Ukraine sea lanes.
The next 2 months could largely decide the situation on the ground in Ukraine.
Our Back Story podcast this weekend discusses the ground war in Ukraine. If you want more on that it’s here and an interview with the Inst. for the Study of War.
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1016881/10810549
Other News…
France and Macron
A bad night for French President Macron who holds his Presidency but now with a reduced chunk of the Parliament. Hiss party lost 100 or so seats, with only a relative and no longer an absolute majority, the once all-conquering head of state will be forced to negotiate with the opposition, notably the conservative Republicans.
France will become difficult to govern in Macron’s last term in office, as he is limited by the constitution to two terms as President.
Britain and Politics of Strikes
Since Prime Minister Boris Johnson was sanctioned by police for throwing drinking parties during covid lockdown, and he narrowly survived a non confidence motion by his own back benchers there is change in the air.
Johnson and his Conservatives smell defeat in upcoming by-elections and are struggling to shape national policies that will let them hold onto power.
So a party which thrives on whipping up fear of immigration, decided to push ahead with controversial and legally questionable attempts to ship illegal refugees to Rwanda. Then Johnson turned to take on the pro Union Labour party by creating havoc with negotiations over rail unions and contract talks.
Labour accuses Johnson of playing politics with pension negotiations and trying to construct a trumped climate of conflict with unions for political gain.
This week Britain is likely to be slammed with the biggest rail strikes in 30 years which will shut down the movement of goods and people across the UK.
The first of 3 walkouts by more than 40 thousand RMT members is set to kick off Tuesday.
Nothing makes the public more angry than the closure of train lines, which effects how people get to work and paralyzes the economy. And of course Johnson’s Government will attempt to blame it all on the Unions and the opposition Labour party. But the Government has refused to take part in talks.
Adding to the commuter misery, a separate London Underground strike will also bring much of the capital’s transport to a halt on Tuesday. About 10,000 members of the RMT will walk out for 24 hours, closing most tube lines.
Have a good Monday everyone.
Dana Lewis