Back Story Newsletter
Ukraine Ceasefire Discussions
The nature of this newsletter, is the ability to forward lean, and discuss what comes next. So I will talk to you about two issues I think are looming big. One is the Russian blockade of the Black Sea and the other is talk of a cease fire.
-Black Sea Blockade-
When Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, its navy quickly created a blockade of Ukraine by closing the Kerch Strait, which connects the smaller Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. It also established complete control of the Sea of Azov, and stationing ships off Odessa and other Ukrainian ports.
The blockade is unofficial and illegal. And those ships and submarines have fired hundreds of missiles at Ukraine.
The Ukrainians have been fighting to open their waters, sinking the Russian warship the Moskva in April. And using drones and other fires, have struggled to stop the Russian’s from controlling Snake Island which is only 30 miles off the coast, and can give Russian anti shipping missiles control of the Ukraine coast including Odesa.
At least eight merchant vessels were attacked in Ukrainian ports and the Black Sea. And one was sank off the coast of Odessa after hitting a mine, and many merchant vessels are stuck in Ukrainian ports unable to leave.
This blockade is a critical element in the World’s food delivery system. In 2019 Ukraine gave us; 42% of the world’s sunflower oil exports, 16% of corn exports, along with 10% of barley and 9% of wheat. The UN says nearly 25 million tonnes of grain are stuck in Ukraine.
Ukraine has arranged to truck and transport by rail some of its food exports through Poland but the need to free up its Black Sea ports are pressing.
Some now think the next front in this war, may be the Black Sea and Russia’s blockade. NATO could take action, but all nations would have to sign on and that includes Turkey. The UN could also do it but Russia would try to veto.
The more food supplies become dire in our World, the larger this issue of the blockade will loom. Breaking the blockade is becoming a hot topic of discussion in NATO and elsewhere.
-Ceasefire-
France, Germany and Italy in recent days are pushing the idea Ukraine now needs to settle for some kind of ceasefire as Ukrainian soldiers are fighting back Russians in many areas. It’s an odd debate, because in some corners predictions are Ukraine will retake many towns and villages, they lost in the opening days of the war.
President Emmanuel Macron stated on May 9 that Ukraine would not join the EU for decades and that the war must not end in “humiliation.” Four days later, Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke to Putin and called for a ceasefire. Italy’s Premier Mario Draghi said the same after meeting President Biden. Notably, the US President did not support those comments, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded sharply, saying Macron was seeking to save Russia’s face.
Many analysts say a frozen conflict would be a powder keg, that is if Russia keeps part of the areas it has illegally seized in Ukraine, the violence would continue much like it has after 2014 when Russia stirred up., armed and funded a rebel force in the Donbas.
Putin would see this land grab as a victory and it would not prevent him from trying the same elsewhere when the time suited him.
And if the Ukraine war is really about the freedom of democracy and Europes ultimate security, ending the fight on Putin’s terms will lay the ground work for an ongoing disaster.
At the same time the war cannot drag on for years. It has to be won in months, and Russia but be seen to be forced out of eastern Ukraine and back to at least 2014 levels or beyond. A loss will signal Russia can’t win a war in Europe, and that Putin has lead his nation into a humiliating conflict, and the defeat will signal time for a change in the Kremlin.
For the moment the U.S. must lead France, and Germany and Italy and others to hold the line. Because the alternative is a crumbling coalition of support, and that will pull the rug out from Ukraines counter offensive, just when momentum seems to be swinging Kyiv’s way and that could mean defeating Putin’s senseless and criminal assault on an independent nation.
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Dana Lewis