Back Story Newsletter
Good morning,
Ukraine And Russia
- Spies -
It’s notable that as a multi layered attack on Russia’s efforts to spy and recruit in foreign countries, dozens of so called ‘diplomats’ have been expelled from Western countries since Russia invaded Ukraine.
If you add up expulsions from France and Germany and all the EU and NATO nations the total numbers of Russian’s sent home is just short of 400. These ‘diplomats’ are generally spies who work for Russia’s foreign intell branches including the FSB and GRU, and have carried out operations which include interference in foreign elections and even attempted assassinations.
- Command And Control -
Russian forces has been in disarray since the invasion of Ukraine began in February. Three different attack axis had three different commanders, with dramatic failings from the north of Kyiv, to the southern coast attack line, and then the eastern front.
Now Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, Russia’s southern military command chief with extensive experience in Syria, has been placed in charge of operations in Ukraine to improve control of the Russian forces. Much has been written about his brutal methods in Syria, but its worth noting other Russian commanders in Ukraine also had battle field experience in Syria and Chechnya.
The Kremlin is looking for a notable victory before annual the May 9th Victory celebration on Red Square, so fighting has quickly escalated over the weekend.
- Eastern Offensive Looms -
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky says Russia is concentrating tens of thousands of soldiers for the next offensive. Speaking to South Korean politicians he said Russia will not stop until it is forced to stop.
The Ukrainian Military now says Russia has lost 19,500 troops since the invasion began, although that number is almost impossible to verify.
So whats happening on the battle field;
-Kharkiv is partially blocked and is hit with multiple attacks daily. 11 people killed in the last 24 hours including a 7 year old child.
-fighting continues in Mariupol and Russian forces has tried and failed multiple times to take the Azovstal plant where Ukrainian forces are holding out
-The Chechen leader Kadyrov who has helped Russian fighting in the south, has said Russian forces intend to “liberate” Luhansk and Donetsk before advancing again on Kyiv. ****I would note here Putin, as I have said from the beginning, is prepared for a long destructive campaign. This will not end May 9 but could drag on endlessly. If allowed, Putin will destroy much of Ukraine unless he is stopped. And more pressure will be placed on NATO to intervene**** Think Syria and Aleppo. Think Chechnya and Grozny. No conscience, bloody, blunt bombing and shelling of civilian areas.
-Russian forces are advancing in eastern Ukraine from Izyum and from the Russian border and to Dnipro. And Ukrainian leaders are preparing for large battles in the East. But Ukrainian forces are said to be dug in, battle hardened and the wide open terrain will favour the defenders. But Russia is massing tens of thousands of soldiers to take the east.
- Finland and Sweden -
Both Sweden and Finland could join NATO by the summer, with Finlands Prime Minister Sanna Marin, saying it was time for Finland seriously to reconsider its stance.
Both countries have reportedly been discussed in NATO closed door sessions, as the alliance discusses implications of admitting them, but more importantly Sweden and Finland weigh up their vulnerabilities against an aggressive and overtly expansionist Russia.
- France -
Amidst all this hoopla of a unified European response to Russia, France held its national elections this weekend and the results are disturbing and could reverberate across Europe.
While President Macron achieve 27.6%, hardline nationalist and pro Russia candidate Marine Le Pen achieved 23%. That sets the stage for a run off with no clear winner in two weeks time.
Le Pen has spoken about leaving the EU, and NATO and withdrawing sanctions against Putin’s Russia. She has been funded by Russia. And Putin will do everything to support he run for President to drive a wedge through Europe.
That’s a quick look at Ukraine and the war this Monday. Please subscribe to this newsletter. We only ask for about 2 dollars a week if you can afford it. That’s a coffee!
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Have a good day everyone.
Dana Lewis