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Good morning,
Escalation In Ukraine
I fear the war in Ukraine is escalating, and we increasingly in dangerous territory.
Many will argue it’s no more dangerous that it was a month ago, or the month before that, but reading commentary inside Russia and combined with growing calls for more action from Western countries, it seems to me that we are about to enter a phase that could lead to a catastrophic decision by Russia to use nuclear weapons, or possibly attack a NATO country.
It wasn’t the weekend evening program on Russia TV hosted by the wacky but Kremlin favourite Vladimir Solovyov, but his comments certainly don’t ease my concerns.
Solovyov began his program with a cackling laugh and a threatening monologue on the west’s weapons shipments to Ukraine.
“We’re moving towards such an escalation that we’re descending into the bloody pages of world history” said Solovyov.
“I hope we’ll live through this, but he predicted “everything is moving towards a massive nuclear strike.”
Putin’s second favourite propagandist Margarita Simonyon chimed in seconds later citing American MLRS weapons shipments to Ukraine that could reach Russian territory saying her boss, Putin won’t accept this. (President Biden says he has assurances they will not be used inside Russia).
“A frightening escalation awaits us, they’re provoking us again, forgetting the lessons of history that we should not be provoked” said Simonyon with warnings WW3 is coming soon.
Now I take Russia TV with a bucket full of salt, because nuclear warnings have been made for months, and are seen by the Kremlin to be successful in scaring off the West from a no-fly zone, or supplying the biggest and worst weapons to block Russia’s illegal seizure of Ukrainian lands. The fever pitch of nuclear threats is deafening.
But what gets my attention more than Russian commentary, are actual discussions in Western circles to supply Ukraine with ASW (Anti Submarine Warfare) capabilities to sink some of Russia’s submarine fleet lurking off the coast of Ukraine, and launching cruise missiles at Ukrainian targets.
Yes Ukraine already sank several Russian ships already including the flag ship of the Black Sea fleet the Moskva, but that was done by Ukrainian anti ship missiles, not western supplied arms and in itself was incredibly bold.
In fact 10 ships have been sank since the start of the war, but most were small Russian Raptor class patrol boats and landing craft.
Russia currently has 6 kilo class submarines, all diesel powered and non nuclear, in the Black Sea and they load their weapons in the port of Sevastopol.
If longer range missiles being shipped to Ukraine can reach those ships, each with a crew of 52, either in port or on the surface, it seems to me the Russian reaction to a sinking would be dramatic.
Putin has a long history with submarines including the sinking of the Kursk in 2000 which killed 118 sailors during a naval exercise. The new Russian President was jeered by wives and mothers when he visited the home port of Murmansk as life saving operations clearly were failing and the Kursk’s crew would never be brought to the surface alive.
If a Russia submarine was sunk off the coast of Ukraine now it would be a hugely psychological moment, and Russia’s reaction would be dramatically unpredictable.
Not to mention even without ASW, Ukrainian forces are now beginning to use in ground offensives more sophisticated artillery systems and drones and even tanks supplied by NATO nations.
If Russia is to lose ground the war which will now grind on for months, it presents Putin with not only a lack of victory to sell to his own people, but a threat to his Kremlin power base.
In an interview I did with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute this week, Prof. Malcolm Davis drew this chilling and perhaps obvious conclusion;
“If we’re supplying the Ukrainians and standing by them so they can defeat Russian forces on the ground, the risk is once if becomes clear to Russia they are losing and losing badly, Putin may escalate” he said.
Adding “So how do we avoid that whilst imposing a defeat is a real challenge for the West and I’m not sure to be honest, it’s a possible outcome that we’re going to achieve” said Davis.
I agree Russia cannot be left with a victory or land grab, otherwise it will attack Ukraine again, or be emboldened to attack a NATO country in the future.
The war needs to end now, but how? Putin must realize his military adventure is a disastrous affair, that is taking us all towards an unthinkable escalation.
Dana Lewis