Back Story Newsletter
Good Morning,
Ukraine Air Defense
The U.S. appears ready to announce it will indeed provide Ukraine with the sophisticated air defence system known as the Patriot, a decision sure to anger Russia which has warned NATO against such a move.
U.S. President Joe Biden spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky Sunday, where according to the Ukrainian readout, they spoke specifically about missile defence. Zelensky on the call thanked Biden for the 'unprecedented support' from the U.S.
Every major American news organization is quoting defence/administration officials today saying they have exclusive info the announcement is imminent. So the news leak was wide and available to all and not exclusive at all.
The Patriot a beast of a ground to air missile defence system, not only because it detects, tracks, and engages UAVs, cruise missiles, and short-range or tactical ballistic missiles, but also because it’s complicated and expensive.
It’s range is about 150 km or 100 miles and can track and shoot multiple targets.
But each Patriot requires 9 soldiers to operate it, and months of training is needed to operate it. The U.S. will likely train Ukrainians in Germany on the system.
Russia will say it’s a dangerous escalation, but as a former U.S. Commander said today “So what, Russia escalated the situation by firing missiles into Ukraines civilian electrical grid, so this is just a response to that”.
Realistically the Patriot will not solve Ukraines air defence problems, or at least not all of them. Each missile is about 3 to 4 million dollars so the Patriot will not be used to shoot down these Iranian drones Russia is increasingly purchasing and deploying.
It can however take out Russian bombers launching cruise missiles over Ukraine and incoming missiles launched from the Putin’s Navy in the Black Sea.
Will the Patriot track and shoot down Russian aircraft over Russia? Complicated question, but not likely.
Will American soldiers be allowed into Ukraine to man the system? Absolutely not and that includes U.S. contractors.
Last month Putin’s ‘fill in President’, and current member of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev warned "If, as (NATO Secretary-General Jens) Stoltenberg hinted, NATO were to supply the Ukrainian fanatics with Patriot systems along with NATO personnel, they would immediately become a legitimate target of our armed forces," Medvedev wrote on the Telegram messaging app.
But Russia wouldn’t dare to strike Ukrainians at a training base in Germany, and NATO personnel won’t man the Patriot inside Ukraine.
This morning Russia launched multiple air strikes at Kyiv, with the mayor Vitaly Klitschko saying there were explosions in a central district of the capital that is home to many government agencies and buildings. He also posted that 10 drones had been shot down by Ukrainian air defences.