Back Story Newsletter
Good Morning,
U.S. Elections
Former President Trumps comeback hopes, may have been dashed with the results of the U.S. midterms. Many of his candidates didn’t do very well, and the Governor he loves to hate Ron DeSantis had a huge victory in Florida.
DeSantis could be the next Republican candidate for President, not Trump even though when a reporter shouted at Trump yesterday “did you vote for DeSantis, Trump swallowed hard and said “yes I did”. Fat chance of that. Trump and DeSantis dislike one another.
The Republicans appear to have taken the House but with a razor thing majority, and the Senate will have to be decided in a runoff in Georgia between Senator Raphael Warnock, a pastor, and Republican challenger Herschel Walker, a former American football star.
What worked this week was Democracy. There are no huge charges of election fraud from the Republicans as there were in the last election. Why? Because they won the House instead of losing and so their belief in democracy is apparently strong as long as they win, and only if they win.
President Joe Biden hailed “a good day” for democracy after Democrats defied history and outperformed expectations.
Why no red wave?
"Across the country, we saw an unmistakable repudiation of the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe," Nancy Northup, the president of the Center for Reproductive Rights.
According to AP VoteCast, a nationwide survey of 90,000 people, about two-thirds of US voters say abortion should be legal in most or all cases.
Only about 1 in 10 say abortion should be illegal in all cases.
Ukraine Retreat
Throughout this war Russia has been slow to admit any setback. The sinking of the Moskva warship for instance, was denied, and the Ukraine offensive in Kharkiv also wasn’t recognized by Russian officials for sometime.
Most days the Kremlin’s propaganda train steams on blowing the victory whistle despite hard realities of a losing war.
So yesterday, imagine the surprise when suddenly on Russian TV carried Defence Min. Shoigu and his top General announced they were pulling back from the only regional city the Russians have taken since Feb. 24.
I am deeply skeptical the Russians will simply leave Kherson, without planning something to thwart a Ukrainian victory.
This was the City President Putin recently announced had been annexed and that Kherson was now Russia’s forever.
Notable is the fact this announcement did not include President Putin, so it may be its trickery, and Putin wants to distance himself officially from that. Or it could be as simple as the fact he doesn’t want to be associated with an announcement that is an admission of strategic defeat in Kherson.
Shoigu’s TV statement was almost laughable as he claimed his paramount concern is for civilian lives and the lives of his own soldiers. Given the fact up to 100 thousand Russian soldiers have been injured or killed in Ukraine and shelling and destruction of civilian areas if widespread that’s hardly believable.
The source for Russian casualties in Ukraine is U.S. Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley who also said Ukraine had also suffered up to 100k KIA or wounded - roughly 100 a day killed and 300 wounded. He also said up to 40 thousand civilians have been killed. By far these are the highest estimates from any western source.
My skepticism this withdrawal to the other side of the Dnieper river, is without some smoke and mirrors, was echoed by Kyiv overnight by even President Zelensky.
Zelensky said his army was "moving very carefully, without emotions, without unnecessary risk, in the interests of liberating all our land and so that the losses are as small as possible."
"The enemy does not give us gifts, does not make 'goodwill gestures', we win it all," Zelensky said in his daily address to the nation, adding any gains by Ukraine come at the expense of "lives lost by our heroes."
What could Russia be planning? There were indications elite Russian troops were taking over homes in Kherson and donning civilian clothing while mining parts of the City.
Russia may flood Kherson using the large dam to the north, and it still controls a nuclear power plant just upstream from Kherson.
If Ukraine wins Kherson, as sooner or later it will, that leaves the Crimea in the gunsights of advancing Ukrainian forces. And that promises to be a dramatic chapter of the war, unless of course Putin sees defeat and will seek a ceasefire? Doubtful but it would be smart at this stage.
COP 27
Most of the negotiations at the UN environmental conference to tackle alarming global warming events, has moved behind closed doors this week.
China’s envoy said the US had “closed the door” to climate talks and needed to reopen it. Xie Zhenhua said Beijing and Washington were having “informal talks”. Xie also hinted that China may contribute to a “loss and damage” fund for poorer countries impacted by the warming of the planets climate.
Bill McKibben, a US environmentalist and founder of 350.org told an audience: “This year we’ve fully understood the link between fossil fuels and fascism. Putin could not have invaded Ukraine without the profits from oil and gas, or cowed the west with threats of turning off the taps.”
Other News…
-Barrier islands have been partially evacuated near Palm Beach as hurricane Nicole hits the east coast of Florida today. The winds are less a worry than flood levels, because the rare November hurricane comes ashore during King tides which already have elevated water levels. On my Singer Island vacation location I can see live cameras showing bending trees and driving rain, and they announced late yesterday the fire department was leaving the island because the fire station was flooded. Land fall is expected near Ft. Pierce around 2am. The storm will effect Georgia and South Carolina as well. There are flood watches 500 miles up the Florida coast.
-Afghanistan's "morality police" on Wednesday ordered that all amusement parks in the country must now refuse entry to women. The ban adds to a long list of curtailments to freedom Afghan women already face.
Have a good day everyone.
Dana Lewis