Back Story Newsletter
Good afternoon,
World Food Deal
It’s being heralded as a major break through, to resume critical food shipments from Ukraine. I think it can unravel in a second and is likely to do so.
Türkiye, UN, Russia and Ukraine have signed a deal in Istanbul to allow exports of 20 million tons of grain through the Black Sea.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov signed separate deals with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, in Dolmabahce Palace on Friday.
The ceremony was witnessed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Essentially Russia, on the eve of its invasion of Ukraine in February, set up a no-go zone in Black Sea effectively blocking Ukraine’s Southern ports including Odesa.
And since that time, the Russian’s have used those waters to launch marine amphibious attacks into Ukraine and launching missiles at civilian areas using submarines.
Odesa has been blockaded, and even foreign ships have not been able to move grain which is now being harvested and is needed to feed the world. Russia of course blames Ukraine for mining the approaches to Odesa which was done to prevent Russian marines from landing and taking the city.
The agreement will work in the sense that Turkey will inspect the ships from Ukraine to make sure they are not transporting weapons, and it’s due to expire in 120 days.
And that inspection will include a joint command center with Russian, Ukrainian, Turkish and U.N. officials working to ensure those ships do not carry weapons back to Ukraine.
Ukrainian warships will guide the transports in and out of Odesa and around mine fields for safe passage.
What could possibly go wrong? Everything.
Russia has shown a history in the past of breaking promises and often pretending to show good intentions while hiding sinister motives.
Even the Ukrainians are warning this agreement could fall apart quickly if Russia is not sincere in allowing the food to be exported in a time of crisis.
Russia could falsely accuse Ukraine of moving weapons, and blame the ensuing escalation on Kyiv. Ships carrying grain could be sunk, or highjacked. And clandestine attacks on ships is possible in the shifting mined waters.
President Putin wants to eventually take Odesa and the rest of Ukraine’s southern coast, so this may be moment for him to regroup and resupply his forces and hoping to push further later.
Russian troops are even said to be partially encircled in Kherson region and Ukrainian press reports suggest a request has been made for a green corridor for thousands of soldiers to exit region. Ukraine demands their surrender of troops and equipment otherwise they will be eliminated.
This is just one chapter in the ongoing war that could sour any deal with Russia.
The U.S. National Security Spokesman John Kirby repeatedly reacted with caution saying the deal’s success was “going to depend on Russia’s compliance with this arrangement and actually implementing its commitments, and of course ending its blockade of Ukrainian ports.”
“Russia’s word is never good enough on its face. It really comes down to the willingness to actually implement,” he added. “We’re clear eyed about this, and we’re going to be watching very closely.”
So is a hungry World, in need of the grain from Ukraine as Russia continues its invasion with the battle field looking only worse by the day, and predictions Putin’s war could go on for several years.
Dana Lewis