Back Story Newsletter
Good Morning,
BREAKING NEWS UPDATE NOW
UKRAINE MAY HAVE HIT A RUSSIAN AIRBASE DEEP INSIDE RUSSIA. ABOUT 700 KILOMETRES FROM THE UKRAINIAN BORDER WITH A DRONE. (ENGELS AIRFORCE BASE WHICH RUSSIA USES TO LAUNCH MISSILE ATTACKS FROM)
RUSSIA NOW LAUNCHING ANOTHER MASSIVE MISSILE STRIKE AGAINST UKRAINE AND PEOPLE ARE IN BOMB SHELTERS AS THOSE MISSILES ARE EITHER INTERCEPTED OR ARE STRIKING TARGETS.
Ukraine-Russia War
Energy Price Cap
Russia already sells oil at a 20% discount, and that makes the current 60 dollars a barrel price cap which kicks in today a small wrinkle for the Kremlin to smooth out.
Russia will have to seek some other customers, as it says it won’t sell to any country now supporting the oil price cap, which means most of Europe. The EU has discussed possible rolling black outs of 2 hours, but in general Europe has reduced consumption, and has enough oil and gas for the winter. But of course energy costly for consumers are much higher.
OPEC has reduced output, but that has more to do with price than supply, but it’s aggravating the situation as winter begins, although winter temperatures are much warmer than expected, and winter reserves in countries are high.
Back Story
On Back Story w/Dana Lewis I talked to sanctions expert Brian O’Toole, who said most of the oil market is unregulated and “opaque” so enforcing an oil price cap is hardly an easy thing to do.
Russia is good at dodging sanctions regulations, so enforcement of the oil price cap and other sanctions is where western governments need to focus their energy.
Cut and paste this link to hear the interview;
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1016881/11801411
Winter Warning
Ukrainian President Zelensky in his weekly address to the nation last night warned of a harsh winter to come and Russia’s advantages in artillery and rockets but said
"The enemy [Russia] really hopes to use winter against us: to make winter cold and hardship part of his terror," Zelensky said in his address. "We have to do everything to endure this winter, no matter how hard it is. And we will endure. To endure this winter is to defend everything."
Russia appears ready to launch a new round of missile attacks targeting Ukrainian infrastructure including power stations, but that could have happened last week. Putin is waiting, although satellite photos have showed Russian bombers loading missiles onto bombers and a missile boat in the Black Sea.
UN Tribunal
A draft resolution is circulating at the United Nations in New York for a Nuremberg-style tribunal to hold the Russian accountable for war crimes in Ukraine.
Why the UN and not the ICC (Int Criminal Court in the Hague)?
Russia is not a signatory to the ICC so prosecution of individuals is said to be extremely difficult. A UN tribunal could get traction, considering Ukraine has been successful in getting votes in the UN General Assembly on the war, and if President Zelensky can convince the Assembly to support a resolution on war crimes the motion would then pass.
The U.S, may provide intelligence on the outbreak of the war and on who was largely responsible for decision making which is not hard to guess considering Putin openly held a meeting of his security council where each one raised a hand to support the “Special Operation” as it was called.
European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, last week backed a specialized tribunal for the first time. The tribunal already has strong French, Baltic and Dutch support the US and the UK have yet to state their support for the proposal.
How would the tribunal impact future discussions on a ceasefire with Russia? Would it undermine the ICC?
The crime - ‘crime of aggression’ is the only way to get to the leadership of a country that has launched a war say legal experts.
The UN has passed resolutions already supporting Russia paying war reparations to individuals and the State for war. There are moves afoot to use billions of Russian State money frozen in European and American banks to rebuild Ukraine.
Have a good Monday everyone!
Dana Lewis