Back Story Newsletter
Good morning, for 20 years I have reported on Russia and President Putin. I hope this newsletter provides you with insight you won’t easily get elsewhere.
Ukraine War
Russian leader Putin’s unprovoked and bloody war in Ukraine, a war without limits, is about to enter a new phase. Tens of thousands of Russian troops are regrouping and will focus on the Donbas, the large eastern section of Ukraine.
It won’t go well. But it will go forward regardless. And that’s daunting and dark for both sides.
Russian BTG’s (Russian Battalion Groups) which numbered somewhere near 180 when the war began February 24, were badly mauled in by defending Ukrainian forces, and are under equipped for the fight ahead, say analysts.
Never mind the fact the Russian morale is low, troops have tried to abandon posts, and soldiers are tired, under fed and are trying to reform for the assault.
Think about this - Russian KIA number somewhere between 7 to 14,000 or possibly more. Generally casualties (wounded) are 3 to 4 times that in war. That means Russia may have suffered roughly 40 thousand wounded.
Out of the original 180,000 battle force pushed into Ukraine, that means a large chunk are dead, wounded, and many of the original BTG’s are not effective fighting forces, or not deployable at all. A lot of armour is destroyed, tanks and artillery.
That’s why to take eastern Ukraine, Russia must redeploy the forces withdrawn from northern Ukraine to the east, but that is slow and challenging in terms of distance and rearming, reconstituting battle groups that also lost commanders.
Ukraine has also suffered losses, but in general their soldiers morale is high and they are battle hardened and ready for the fight ahead as long as they can be resupplied which is currently as issue in terms of time. They have used ammunition faster than resupplies.
Thus, the announcement yesterday by President Biden to supply an additional $800 million in arms is key to Ukraines survivability.
The package, which brings the total military aid since Russian forces invaded in February to more than $2.5 billion, includes artillery systems, artillery rounds, armored personnel carriers and unmanned coastal defense boats, Biden said in a statement after a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
The new package includes 11 Mi-17 helicopters. It also includes 18 155mm howitzers, along with 40,000 artillery rounds, counter-artillery radars, 200 armored personnel carriers and 300 additional “Switchblade” drones.
The U.S. has shown it can quickly transport weapons into Ukraine and that’s critical now as Russian prepares its new offensive to give Putin some kind of victory in this tragic conflict.
As I predicted as the beginning of this war, the Russian army would show it is a blunt crushing force with no regard for civilians. In fact depopulation of Ukraine may be Putins larger goal, so his forces are using cluster munitions, firing on residential buildings with tanks and rockets and bombing from the air.
Russian soldiers have destroying civilian areas in many cities, and in Bucha, the aftermath of a Russian occupation has shown intentional killings = war crimes against residents bound and shot at close range and buried in mass graves.
The 45 members of the OSCE have concluded Russia has “engaged in a clear pattern” of war crimes hitting hospitals, schools, and places of shelter.
Genocide? President Biden says yes. French President Macron cautioned against using the term because Ukrainians and Russians are “brothers”.
"What we can say for sure is that the situation is unacceptable and that these are war crimes. We are living through war crimes that are unprecedented on our soil — our European soil” said Macron.
European countries have lost any and all trust in Putin’s Russia. So we hear more this week of Finland and Sweden joining NATO out of fear of a similar invasion as in Ukraine. That tells you everything about why NATO expanded since the collapse of the Soviet Union, especially in countries once dominated by the Soviets, that later sought democracy and European freedoms and protection from Russia.
Putin has grown more paranoid and strangled freedoms inside Russia fearing opposition to his war in Ukraine and voices of dissent.
In addition to silencing anti war protesters, shutting down think tanks like Carnegies endowment centre, and closing all independent media, he has jailed spy chief Colonel General Sergei Beseda, head of the Fifth Service of the FSB, who is being held in Lefortovo prison.
Beseda was in charge of providing political intelligence on Ukraine, which was badly assessed resistance to a Russian invasion would be easily overcome. The Fifth Service was also still in charge of maintaining official contacts with the CIA.
Did Putin conclude America’s accurate intelligence warning of Russia’s intent to attack Ukraine was based on an inside leak?
Overnight details Russia’s flagship the Moskva was badly damaged. The Russian defense ministry says that an explosion aboard Moskva, the flagship of the country's Black Sea Fleet, has "seriously damaged" the vessel.
The ministry's statement said: "The cruiser Moskva's ammunition has detonated as a result of a fire on the warship.
"The vessel is seriously damaged. The entire crew have been evacuated. The cause of the blaze is being investigated."
It did not specify the cause of the fire, saying it was under investigation but Ukraine says the warship was struck by their Neptune missiles.
Ukrainian authorities also say Russian forces have once again failed in an operation to completely take Mariupol.
That’s a look at Ukraine today. Please subscribe to the newsletter and share it. You are welcome to become a paid subscriber if you wish, and participate in the discussion.
Dana Lewis