Good morning,
We are approaching the one year anniversary of Russia’s Feb 24 invasion of Ukraine, and the war is raging without any sign of an end, and instead both sides are promising to escalate the conflict.
When I told you a year ago, Russia was serious about massing troops on Ukraines border and that my sources indicated an invasion would take place, it was hard for many to believe.
A year later it’s an easier more believable message to sell, that this war is about to get worse and Russian leader Putin won’t stop, won’t blink, no matter the cost to his economy or to the lives of Russian families losing loved ones, in a battle he frames as defensive, when we all know that Russia is an aggressor in an unnecessary war.
Russia has already ‘lost’ the war in Ukraine Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark Milley said in Brussels Tuesday.
Milley spoke amid warnings of a renewed Russian offensive, with allies seeking to rush more weapons and ammunition to Ukrainian fighting units.
“Russia is now a global pariah and the world remains inspired by Ukrainian bravery and resilience. In short, Russia has lost — they've lost strategically, operationally, and tactically,” said Milley.
The see-saw battle for Bakhmut on Eastern Ukraine is said to be measured in feet each day, as Russia looks for some kind of anniversary for Putin to trumpet in another week.
Reports say Russia is massing strike aircraft inside Russia but nearer to Ukraine for a new air campaign in this war. Russia’s airforce is largely intact and a formidable force.
Today NATO allies are continuing their special meeting in Brussels to pave the way for more air defence for Ukraine, more ammunition, and to address very ‘specific’ requests from Ukraine. Ammunition needs are said to be critical.
“It is clear that we are in a race of logistics,” Jens Stoltenberg, head of Nato, told reporters in Brussels on Monday.
Putin has largely succeeded in isolating his country, and making it a pariah state instead of a leader on the World stage that is now dominated by China and America.
And one of Russia’s most respected retired military leaders, has spoken out against Putin and the war.
Retired army colonel-general Leonid Ivashov, chairman of the independent All-Russian Officers' Assembly said this week “We did not expect such a series of mistakes, wrong actions during this military operation.'
'At the operational-tactical level, we did not think that within a year we would not be able to liberate the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
'We did not think that there would be such heavy losses, although I then said there would be tens of thousands of dead on both sides.
'But everything turned out to be much worse.'
The much worse includes casualty figures which indicate Russia has lost up to 200 thousand soldiers KIA or wounded in Ukraine, which is an astounding number. It may be a similar number on the Ukrainian side as well.
Losses are said to be so significant they are unsustainable at this tempo, which only seems to be increasing as the anniversary date of Putin’s illegal invasion looms.
Stay cautious and steer clear of simple predictions or trite predictions by so called Russia experts this next week. The war in Ukraine is by no means predictable, and everything seems possible.
And every defeat or victory over the next week is not necessarily a sign of momentum by either side, and the price being paid for any advance now is extreme.
Dana Lewis