RUSSIA
Alexei Navalny, who in August fought to stay alive after being poisoned with Novichok nerve agent finally went home Sunday from Germany. He was surrounded on the flight by reporters and photographers, because The Kremlin had announced ahead of time Navalny would be arrested. And so he was, taken into custody by Russian authorities who diverted his plane from one Moscow airport, (Vnukovo) to another (Sheremetyevo).
His arrest has outraged The West, because the evidence Russia violated The Treaty on Chemical Weapons Convention in making deadly Novichok is clear. And the fact they have now become so desperate to try to assassinate Putin’s political opponents is not only a human rights outrage, it tells you the regime is becoming desperate and more unstable than was believed.
Navalny has collected a myriad of evidence that his attackers were members of The Russian Security services. So much so they have been identified by name and extensive geo locating phone records put on display. Navalny was under surveillance when he was poisoned, and one of the intelligence agents later admitted on a taped phone call, the Novichok was wiped in Navalny’s underwear. Navalny says he will fight the bogus fraud claims against him and come out of prison a stronger opposition to Putin.
Condemnation from Joe Biden’s incoming national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, called for Navalny’s immediate release, adding that the “perpetrators of the outrageous attack on his life must be held accountable”. And that statement was echoed from Britain, Germany, France, and other European leaders.
Watch for Parliamentary elections this year, in which Navalny’s political movement will contest important contests. Putin is growing weaker. In addition to the attack on Navalny polls show great disappointment with his handling of the pandemic, and a growing economic isolation and stagnation in Russia. And the arrest of Navalny just as a President elect Biden is sworn in, will fuel further talk of sanctions and a harder line against Putin’s leadership.
Inauguration this week
Wednesday Donald Trump will take a flight out of Washington to Florida, and within hours Joe Biden will enter the White House. A deep clean will have to happen in The White House residence, but how to clean up the mess left by Trump? That will take years. The transition of power has been the worst in History in American history. A violent attack on The Capitol. A pending impeachment trial in The Senate and Trump who clearly and legally lost the election, still refuses to admit it. So millions of Americans think the election was stolen and that is a dangerous hangover.
New polling in the wake of the Capitol attack show many Americans will say good riddance to Trump. His popularity is now at 34 per cent. Politico and Morning Consult Poll shows Trumps disapproval rating at 63 per cent, while only 40 per cent of Republicans say they would vote for Trump if he ran in 2024. Trumps ban from Facebook and Twitter and other platforms has surely helped calm things down. If he can’t divide the country on twitter, there is promise the country can heal. But I say that as thousands of national guard troops are in Washington and some have compare it to the green zone in Baghdad, the sprawling concrete walled well guarded American embassy compound. Yes there are as many troops in D.C. as in Iraq and Afghanistan, but there aren’t many troops in those places anymore so the parallel seems a bit ridiculous.
The Atlantic has a good read on V.P. Mike Pence, and how he lashed his future to Trumps and is now adrift with little chance to emerge as a Presidential contender in 2024.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/01/mike-pences-career-over/617676/
Our latest podcast is on the armed white supremacist groups in America, who were emboldened under Trump, and played a major role in The attack on the Capitol. White terrorism has been the leading cause of death in America under Trump. Is it time now groups like the proud boys and others be classified as terror organizations? It has implications under the law for surveillance and tracking of international links on funding and more. Subscribe to the podcast Back Story with Dana Lewis! and share our link.
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1016881/7307512
Biden will hit the ground running promising to vaccinate 100 million Americans in his first 100 days. And ask people to wear masks for that time. He will roll out a pandemic bailout package upping cheques to 2 thousand dollars. He knows how to handle The Senate and with a vote from The V.P. will control the senate.
In America it took 12 weeks for the death toll to rise from 200,000 to 300,000. The death toll has leaped from 300,000 to almost 400,000 in less than five weeks.
America will resign The Paris accord to confront the Global warming emergency. It will try to bring Iran back to a non proliferation agreement. There is an emboldened Turkey which needs to be either tamed to follow NATO rules or edged out of the alliance. China-American relations is in tatters, and Biden will be more practical than Trump. North Korea, Afghanistan, Russia, the Palestinian Israeli conflict, there are many challenges looming.
Watch for Trumps departure Wednesday. He will try to upstage the inauguration, and with Trump that usually means saying or doing something incendiary. But mainstream media, even his right wing cable crowd, are being careful with Trumps wink and a nod calls for insurrection. He will issue dozens of pardons this week which have essentially been for sale to enrich Trump.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/17/us/politics/trump-pardons.html
Will he pardon himself and his family? And the pardons won’t stop the impeachment trial and State investigations into Trumps business dealings.
Covid Europe
The so called British or English Covid19 Variant, which spreads so much more easily is seeping into Europe. It spreads 70% faster say health experts.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-why-europe-is-worrying-so-much-about-the-uk-covid-variant-12187834
As I write to you from London, The British Gov has suspended air travel corridors worried about other emerging variants from Brazil and South Africa among others. Britain should have asked incoming visitors to take tests and quarantine months agol It didn’t and the death toll here is now approaching 90 thousand.
Britain is having success in rolling out its vaccines at least. The rest of Europe is much further behind. One month after Britains first vaccines were started, Holland for instance is just giving it’s first vaccines. There is a good chart here in Politico on each Country.
https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-vaccination-europe-by-the-numbers/
We are in lockdown here and across most of Europe it’s the same. My kids cannot attend school. It’s all online and it will be that way until at least the end of February. Almost all stores are closed. We are allowed to go out to buy food and take our kids to the park for exercise. What a long winter! But we are safe by wearing masks, and staying in our own family bubble. Daily exercise, good food, and staying positive.
Have a good week everyone. I will send another news letter mid week or as events demand.