Good morning,
Russia
I was a correspondent in Russia for NBC in 1998, and spent 12 years there for American TV, travelling the country and getting to know so people from The Kremlin to the small towns of Siberia and 11 time zones east to Kamchatka and spending hours listening to President Putin inside the Kremlin library in off the record “chats” with journalists.
I was struck by Russian’s views on democracy because it was so different than my experience, which growing up in Canada made you thirst for democracy and individual rights and freedoms. Because of the chaos of the 90’s following the collapse of The Soviet Union, and the lawlessness and deterioration of civil society, they saw democracy in parallel with disorder. And most thought Putin was ok because he presented stability.
Well fast forward to yesterday, when tens of thousands of Russians demonstrated in violent confrontations with police in Moscow and St. Petersburg and dozens of different cities and ask why? What’s changed?
Simply there is a new generation connected on line and they have had enough of what they see as injustice, and corruption. Injustice is the recent jailing of poisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who after struggling to over come a dose of nerve agent no doubt administered by FSB, was jailed the moment he got home from Germany. It has stirred and angered the nation, and his investigation into The Kremlins corruption and the building of Putin’s billion dollar palace (which Putin denies is his) couldn’t come at a worse time when the economy is suffering and many are out of work because of the pandemic and sanctions. That video of the palace was viewed 100 million times, and now the revelation the palace has 800 dollar toilet cleaning brushes, is the reason toilet brushes are the march symbol in the demonstrations, which angers so many because one brush is more than the average monthly pad pension.
Russians believe Putin has been in power too long, which he has, since 2000 when Boris Yeltsin stepped down and handed him the reins to rule a pretend democracy every Russian knows is run by stuffed ballot boxes and Kremlin controlled media messaging. And this summer Putin extended his stay through a rammed through dodgy referendum until 2036 if he chooses.
Putin has lost the aging traditional Russian who saw their pensions collapse and the social contract with their leader evaporate in the pandemic when the shortfalls of their health care system were laid bare for all to understand. And Putin has lost the youth of Russia with his jailing of Navalny and now these brutal scenes of beating and jailing protesters will broaden the distance between the young and Czar Putin (that’s what demonstrators chant as they demand he go away) is quickly being over taken by events he can’t quite control with harsh penalties and more police.
Here’s the thing President Putin, your constitution allows people to peacefully demonstrate and your’e shutting down Moscow and other Cities to prevent that yesterday is a violation of their rights to gather. It’s a tactic borrowed from Belarus next door, where another dictator who has lost the confidence of his people has been jailing and beating and torturing demonstrators since August when he was caught obviously stealing the election. The people in Belarus have been fighting every weekend since then to be free and every weekend the police chase them down and arrest them by the tens of thousands. Guess who is advising crazy Belarus dictator Lukashenko? It is Putin because he feared this unrest unrest in Belarus spilling over into Mother Russia. Well now it has.
My analysis is, this will not end quickly. If Russians are prepared to go to the streets not one weekend but two in a row as they did Sunday, then they will be prepared to go to the streets every weekend for months. The bloom is off Putin, and his popularity will sink further. The calls for more sanctions by The West will grow louder targeting as many as three dozen members of Putins inner circle. The Kremlin won’t get smart and free Navalny, but will double down so they don’t appear weak and jail Navalny for years, and his life is surely at risk. But Russia won’t be the same internally, and while Putin will try to blame The West for stirring his troubles (as he always does when things don’t go his way) this crisis will be like a cancer because it is home grown grass roots anger and opposition that’s transcends and crosses different generations. Real change is afoot in Russia, and the concern Russia is sliding back to it’s dark Soviet authoritarian days will propel a new national political movement that could surprise us all as new parliamentary elections loom and threaten Putin’s strangle hold on power in September.
On Back Story podcast I interviewed the daughter of Boris Nemtsov who was murdered in front of the Kremlin. Zhanna speaks of a the birth of a new national political movement in Russia and the desire to remove Putin.
And The Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov calls on the EU to pursue sanctions to force the release of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
Plus, analysis of what comes next by Russia expert Alex Kokcharov.
That link is here and I hope you have a listen. Zhanna is a compelling interview and now in her fathers name runs The Boris Nemtsov foundation for freedom.
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1016881/7499026
Briefly In Other News
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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/31/world/asia/myanmar-coup-aung-san-suu-kyi.html
Trumps slush fund of $30 million raked in during the last few months of his Presidency. He can use it for impeachment defense and for almost anything he chooses as it is largely unregulated.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/31/politics/donald-trump-save-america-pac-contributions/index.html
EU vaccinations - Astrazeneca has promised more vaccines, but it’s still half of what The European Union was promised but other vaccines are coming on line.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-vaccine-uk-deaths-lockdown-end/
New outbreaks in Perth Australia and in Japan. Olympics this summer in Tokyo? They say yes but many think unlikely
Canada’s Justin Trudeau talks about his relief in having President Biden to deal with vs. Trump
https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2021/01/31/justin-trudeau-talks-about-the-challenge-of-trump-his-relationship-with-biden-and-the-canadian-idea-the-new-president-might-steal.html