Good morning,
BREAKING
On this Easter weekend I hope you are healthy and happy and with your family.
I am watching the military buildup on Ukraine’s eastern borders. Russia has moved thousands of troops and tanks into the Crimea and along the key border points, and an escalation of the 7 year conflict with Ukraine is now more and more likely.
Why now? No one is quite sure, but the so called ‘cease fire’ that was signed in 2015 has never gotten traction and recent shelling from Moscow backed rebels in Easter Ukraine has been escalating. Russia can be seen moving trains loaded with armour into the illegally annexed Crimea which is suffering a severe water shortage, cut off from water supplies in Ukraine.
An attack on Ukraine could come from several directions. NATO is on high alert and has been warned by the Kremlin to stay out of the conflict, while U.S. President Biden has reportedly reassured Ukraine it will not be left alone if hostilities escalate. Ukraine is not a NATO member but receives arms and training from NATO member countries.
4000 Russian forces on the border won’t equal a massive invasion say experts, but a quick and deadly conflict resulting in a Russian land grab is possible.
Putin harvested huge polling popularity when he annexed the Crimea. Recently his jailing of opposition leaders, and his poor handling of the pandemic has set him up for a poor election performance in Parliamentary contests set for later this year.
A Ukraine conflict, which the Kremlin will spin as a NATO led operation, will boost Putins popularity at home, enforcing the Russian narrative NATO is a threat to it’s sovereignty.
This is a dangerous moment for Ukraine and a test for Biden’s leadership.
Stay tuned!
I am working on a Ukraine podcast for early next week. Please subscribe if you have not done so already.
https://backstorywithdanalewis.buzzsprout.com
Dana