Good morning,
The decision by the Biden Administration to allow F16’s to go to Ukraine, isn’t going to change the fight overnight, but it is a controversial escalation of the war, and significant in terms of the long term commitment to support Ukraine.
I will explain why -
The fighting Falcon is a multi role, air to air and also air to ground fighter jet, and one of the most modern military platforms in the World depending on the upgraded version.
There are 5000 of the airplanes around the World in different countries which purchased them from America, but all have different hardware/software and the international community will have to come up with 20-30 aircraft for Ukraine that are similar and can integrate with one another.
Denmark and Holland for instance are looking to replace F-16’s with the new F-35 fighter so their F-16’s would work for Ukraine. But timing is key, and even experienced Ukrainian pilots would need about 4 months to be certified on the F-16’s.
The aircraft would not be part of Ukraine’s Spring/Summer offensive.
But all of this adds up to a major escalation of the war because we are quickly seeing Ukraine armed “to the teeth” and in effect becoming a NATO ally.
First it was short range artillery, then longer range artillery was provided. ATACMS I think will soon also be provided because President Biden is slowly removing redlines that he previously drew on arms for Ukraine, including the F-16.
Smaller portable anti aircraft systems were at first given to Ukraine, and then later more sophisticated systems including the Patriot.
Some soft armour trickled in and then tanks, including Abrams were pledged and delivered.
The F-16’s won’t be given by America, but by others, which means a possible change in the U.S. administration in an election won’t easily reverse the commitment.
No matter what Donald Trump may think about the war, this F-16 decision translates into a long term promise to Ukraine to allow it to fight off Russia for years to come.
If Putin thinks he can outlast the West, the F-16 decision should clear the clouds in his thought process, to understand the war and Ukraine’s alignment with NATO and future membership in the alliance isn’t going away.
Russia might have negotiated with the West at the beginning of this conflict, to disarm Ukraine, and broker possible pledges for NATO to never accept Ukraine.
That’s all gone away, as Ukraine has been unified in it’s anger towards Russia, and deep memory of the brutal attacks on it’s civilian areas are now part of it’s collective history.
The West has taken Russian commentators threats to attack Poland and the Baltics, and even threaten Germany and the UK extremely seriously.
The U.S. has been led by European nations to deepen it’s defence of Ukraine, because who knows what country is next on Putin’s crazy list of restoring a Russian empire?
The F-16’s should make Putin and his Kremlin gang of Soviet era dinosaurs wake up and smell the coffee.
But I think it won’t. Putin in my years of covering him is predictable. He is “Mr. Double-Down” and that fact, will lead him and Russia further into the quick sand of war.
Here are a few key questions I think are unanswered;
-Can Ukraine use an F-16 to bomb a Russian attack platform just over the border inside Russia? The U.S. claims no but who is to stop them?
-Can Ukraine use F-16’s to attack the Crimea?
-Can F-16’s be deployed to take out Russian air cover over the Black Sea and attack Russian warships launching missiles at Ukraine?
If you answer yes to any of the above, the war will dramatically escalate and dangerously so. And in my view that escalation now seems inevitable and it will happen very soon.
Dana Lewis