Good Morning,
The sheer magnitude of the loss of the Kakhovka dam reservoir won’t be known for days to come, but the rising waters downstream have already displaced thousands (17,000 from Kherson alone) and is impacting some 80 towns and villages.
There will be loss of wildlife habitat, devastation to the critical farming sector, a plume of fresh water into the saltwater Black Sea choking fish habitats and more.
Fortunately there is no indication the upstream Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is threatened, although long term how it will get water for cooling is not clear.
Who did this?
Well firstly you don’t have to leap very far to conclude Russian is ultimately responsible by occupying Ukraine, kicking off a war in Europe, and mining the dam with explosives.
There are videos circulating where Russian soldiers brag about mining the facility as far back as December, with threats to blow it all up.
The Ukrainians have accused the Russians of Eco terrorism, and destroying the dam amounts to a war crime. The motive they say for Russia to destroy the dam was to slow the possible advance of Ukraines counter offensive in southern Ukraine.
The Russians have denied they destroyed the dam and said the Ukrainians did it. Their reasoning - Ukraine wanted to pull key units out of Kherson and deploy them elsewhere for the counter offensive, so by flooding the area they could disrupt a Russian attempt to retake Kherson.
It’s very hard to believe Ukrainian leaders would blow up a dam and flood such a large area with all the devastating consequences, for a military goal that could have been accomplished without blowing Kakhovka.
But there are some satellite photos which show the dam was showing signs of destruction as early as June 5th, when Russia claims Ukraine had shelled the facility.
But again ultimately, Russia occupied the dam, and essentially held it hostage along with the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant which it still occupies.
Beyond frightening is the notion Russia might turn Europes largest nuclear facility into a weapon by sparking a meltdown.
Russia should withdraw from Zaporizhzhia before the unthinkable happens there too, but of course Putin’s war offers untold destruction with no consideration of civilian loss of life in Ukraine, so withdrawing from the nuclear plant will have to be a forced march only after Ukraine isolates and encircles the plant.
The beginning of the Ukrainian offensive has barely kicked off and the Kakhovka dam destruction is a monstrous crime.
Unfortunately this war promises more or even worse destruction in Ukraine, and it will be frightening in its scope and scale.
Dana