Good Morning,
NATO has a trip wire called article 5 and there-in lies the reason Ukraine is not immediately becoming a member, despite a tremendous debate, and diplomatic push for that to happen at the NATO summit in Lithuania.
Simply, if Ukraine was allowed into NATO now, NATO would have to put boots on the ground in Ukraine and begin a war with Russia, dangerously pitting nuclear powers against one another.
There seems no doubt Ukraine will quickly be admitted to NATO once the fighting stops, and had NATO admitted Ukraine years ago, Russia probably wouldn’t have dared to invade a sovereign nation under NATO’s defence umbrella.
Most NATO members now agree that to keep Ukraine out of NATO is also unwise, because it means Russia won’t stop the fighting, as long as that blocks membership in an alliance which Putin characterizes as unfriendly, on Russia’s border.
Fact is NATO never planned to attack Russia, and never would have, so Putin’s lie of a NATO threat is hollow.
In some sense Ukraine is already partially a NATO member, receiving arms, training, intelligence sharing, and even war time strategic advice from NATO experts.
Ukraine’s President Zelensky clearly sees NATO membership as the only way to bring peace to his war torn country.
In his nightly address he said "When we applied for membership of NATO, we spoke frankly: de facto, Ukraine is already in the alliance. Our weapons are the weapons of the alliance. Our values are what the alliance believes in.Vilnius must confirm all this," Zelensky said in his nightly video address.
"We are still working on the wording, that is, on the specific words of such confirmation, but we already understand the fact that Ukraine will be in the alliance, and we are working to make the algorithm for gaining membership as clear and fast as possible."
But de facto is not full membership, and the NATO summit won’t change that, except in some fact track promises, that will still mean Ukraine will have to wait, and fight on against Russia.
Sweden will be admitted to NATO however, after Turkey’s leader Erdogan appeared to give up on his various demands, and said he would support Sweden. But Erdogan also said his parliament (which he controls) must approve the deal, so there is always room for another delay.
What Turkey got in return for supporting Swedens bid, appears to be F-16 fighter jets from the U.S. and even a symbolic gesture of support for EU membership, which is still a remote possibility.
Putin’s Wagner
Jaw dropping admissions were made by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov Tuesday, admitting President Putin invited the so called coup leader Yevgeny Prigozhin for a 3 hour Kremlin meeting on June 29.
That was just 5 days after Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries had moved into Russia from Ukraine, threatening a full march on Moscow, and shooting down several Russian aircraft en route from Rostov On Don after seizing the army headquarters there.
Why would Putin meet with Prigozhin and 35 others, including Wagner commanders, after openly accusing them of a mutiny, similar to the Russian revolution of 1917?
I am full of questions, but a few reflections -
-Putin is not in charge of Russia as we tend to think in western terms. He is a family mafia Don, who negotiates and keeps the peace between various clans and powers
-Prigozhin still has power and protection from Russia intelligence agencies and removing him would be tantamount to challenging those powers
-Putin needs Wagner to keep fighting in Ukraine, it’s still an effective fighting force
-Putin can’t easily replace Wagner in Africa, where is had supported wobbly Governments and is linked in profitable enterprises like mining
Really a coup?
So was this really a coup attempt in Russia? I have my doubts, but Prigozhin stated he was in a conflict with Defence Minister Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. He never said he was acting against Putin.
And yesterday Peskov said Prigozhin and others stated at their Kremlin meeting, their loyalty for Putin.
Prigozhin went against the regular Russian command, and might have done more had he marched on Moscow. If Putin was strong, that was enough to kill or capture Wagner’s boss, and show the country he was strong.
Putin is weak, and appears not strong enough to act against Prigozhin. And that means these are dangerous times for the Russian leader, who may not be President very long.
Have a good day everyone.